Weekly Outlook, Apr 12-16, 2021: Top Economic Events to Watch This Week - Forex News by FX Leaders

Weekly Outlook, Apr 12-16, 2021: Top Economic Events to Watch This Week

Posted Saturday, April 10, 2021 by
Arslan Butt • 4 min read

The broad-based U.S. dollar is going to end this week on the bullish track despite downbeat U.S. jobs figures and a stubbornly dovish U.S. Federal Reserve stance on monetary policy. The U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell continued to maintain its dovish stance on monetary policy. The perspective would only shift after a few straight months of upbeat data, he further added. Powell’s colleague and St. Louis Fed president James Bullard also said that the central bank would not even think about changes until clear signs that the COVID-19 pandemic is over. Thus, the downbeat jobs data and the Fed’s comments pushed the benchmark 10-year yields to a two-week low of 1.6170%. This was seen as one of the key factors that cap the further upside for the U.S. dollar. Also, capping the gains could be the prevalent upbeat market mood, which tends to undermine the safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar.

Looking forward to the coming week, the series of Consumer Price Index and Unemployment rate, along with BOC Business Outlook Survey and Chinese Trade Balance, can drive plenty of headlines to keep the markets on the move. In addition to this, the ever-increasing cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) will also closely followed as they could play a key role in determining risk levels in the market.

Top Economic Events to Watch This Week

1 BOC Business Outlook Survey – Monday, 15:30 GMT

This Survey is usually released by the Bank of Canada, which shows the business condition in Canada. Business Confidence allows analysis of the economic situation in the short term interviewing with 100 business officials. Executives’ positive view is considered bullish for the CAD currency; conversely, the gloomy outlook is seen as negative or bearish for the CAD currency.

2 Trade Balance CNY – Tuesday, Tentative

 This data is released by the General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China, and shows a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows a trade surplus. Conversely, the negative value indicates a trade deficit. In that way, this data is seen as a key factor that creates some volatility for the CNY. Since the Chinese economy influences the global economy, this economic indicator would impact the whole Forex market. Therefore, the high figures are seen as positive for CNY currency; conversly, the low figures are considered negative or bearish for the CNY currency.

Previous release

ACTUAL: 675.86 B

DEV:1.54

CONS: 369.73 B

DATE: 03/07/2021 08:00

3 Consumer Price Index (MoM) – Tuesday, 13:30 GMT

This data is typically released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and indicates a measure of price movements by comparing the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchasing power of the U.S. Dollar is dragged down by inflation. In that way, the CPI is a leading indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. In simple words, the high figures are considered as positive for the USD currency; conversely, the low figures are seen as bearish for the USD currency. 

Previous release

ACTUAL: 0.4 %

DEV: 0.00

CONS: 0.4 %

DATE: 03/10/2021 13:30:30

ii) Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM):

This data is typically released by the U.S. Department of Labor Statistics, a measure of price movements by comparing the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. Those volatile products such as food and energy are excluded from capturing an accurate calculation. In simple words, the high figures are considered positive for the USD currency; conversely, the low figures are seen as bearish for the USD currency. 

Previous release

ACTUAL: 0.1 %

DEV: -0.83

CONS: 0.2 %

DATE: 03/10/2021 13:30

4 UK Gross Domestic Product (MoM) – Tuesday, 6:00 GMT

The Office for National Statistics typically releases this data, measuring the total value of all goods and services produced by Britain. The GDP is seen as a key measure of the U.K. economic activity. In simple words, the high figures are seen as positive for the GBP currency; likewise, the low reading is seen as negative (or bearish for the GBP currency.

Previous release

ACTUAL: -2.9 %

DEV: 1.12

CONS: -4.9 %

DATE: 03/12/2021 07:00

ii) Goods Trade Balance – Tuesday, 6:00 GMT

This data is released by the Office for National Statistics, a balance between exports and imports of goods. However, the positive value shows the trade surplus. Conversely, the negative value suggests a trade deficit. This data is seen as the key factor that creates some volatility for the GBP currency. If a steady demand in exchange for U.K. exports is seen, that will turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that would be seen as positive or bullish for the GBP currency. Conversely, the low figures are considered as negative or bearish for the GBP currency. 

Previous release

ACTUAL: £-9.826 B

DEV: 1.10

CONS: £-12.5 B

DATE: 03/12/2021 07:00

5 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision – Wednesday, 3:00 GMT

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces this decision. If the RBNZ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates, it is seen as bullish for the NZD currency; conversely, if the RBNZ is dovish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and cut the interest rates, it is seen as bearish for the NZD currency.

Previous release

ACTUAL: 0.25 %

DEV: 0.00

CONS: 0.25 %

DATE: 02/24/2021 01:00

 6 Crude Oil Inventories – Wednesday, 15:30 GMT

This data is released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), a U.S. key indicator and mainly affects the Canadian dollar due to Canada’s sizable energy sector. It measures supply and demand imbalances in the market, leading to changes in production levels and price volatility. ‘Actual’ less than ‘Forecast’ is seen as bullish for USD currency.

7 Aussie Employment Change – Thursday

i – Aussie Employment Change:

This data is typically released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which measures the number of employed people in Australia. In simple words, an increase in this indicator positively impacts consumer spending, which tends to boost economic growth. Hence, the high figures are considered bullish for the AUD currency; conversely, low figures are seen as negative (or bearish) for the AUD currency.

Previous release

ACTUAL: 88.7 K

DEV: 0.72

CONS: 30 K

DATE: 03/18/2021 00:30

ii – Unemployment Rate:

This data is typically released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which measures the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. High figures indicate a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. In that way, an increase leads to weakening the Aussie economy. So, the figure’s decrease is seen as bullish sentiment for the AUD currency; conversely, the rise is considered negative or bearish for AUD currency.

Previous release

ACTUAL: 5.8 %

DEV: -10.21

CONS: 6.3 %

DATE: 03/18/2021 00:30

8 Gross Domestic Product (YoY) – Friday, 3:00 GMT

This data is typically released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, which shows the monetary value of all the goods, services, and structures produced within a country in a given period. GDP Annualized is a gross measure of market activity as it indicates the pace at which the Chinese economy is growing or decreasing. In that way, the high figures or better than expected numbers are seen as bullish for the CNY currency; conversely, the low reading is considered as negative or bearish for the CNY currency.

Previous release

ACTUAL: 6.5 %

DEV: 0.76

CONS: 6.1 %

DATE: 01/18/2021 02:00

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