On Thursday, markets are likely to turn their attention towards the US as it releases its retail sales figure for the month of March. Economists are forecasting a jump in the reading, bolstered by Biden’s stimulus payments worth $1,400 which could boost consumer spending and contribute towards economic recovery.

Economists at the Bank of America  expect March’s report to show a spike by over 11% – for both the headline number as well as for core retail sales. In addition to Biden’s COVID-19 relief package, the easing of lockdowns and the improvement of the weather are also anticipated to have encouraged consumers to step out of homes and spend more money.

Markets have high hopes for the US economy to post its strongest performing quarter of the year between April and June, when pent-up demand among consumers would drive spending and give the economy a much needed boost. Some economists have forecast a GDP of over 10% for Q2 2021, which would then ease slightly lower into the second half of the year.

It remains to be seen whether the surge in retail sales would encourage businesses to increase their spending plans for the rest of the year, which will offer an additional boost to the economic recovery underway. Also worth watching will be the impact of this growth in retail sales on consumer inflation in the coming months, and whether the surge from April will sustain through the rest of the year as well.