Weekly Outlook, Jun 28, 2021 – Jul 2, 2021: Top Economic Events to Watch This Week
Arslan Butt•Sunday, June 27, 2021•4 min read
The broad-based U.S. dollar will end this week on the bearish track but still hovering near multi-month highs as investors await further inflation data to close the week. Furthermore, the market risk-on mood put some additional burden on the safe-haven U.S. dollar. Investors are still unable to digest the U.S. Federal Reserve’s surprise hawkish turn as it handed down its policy decision during the previous week. However, comments from Fed Chairman and other officials throughout the past week calmed market nerves about an expected interest rate hike. Conversely, the previously released upbeat prints of the U.S. data, namely the core durable goods orders, and initial jobless claims, failed to leave any meaningful impact on the U.S. dollar.
Looking forward to the coming week, the series of Manufacturing PMI and Unemployment rates, along with Final GDP q/q and OPEC-JMMC Meetings, can drive plenty of headlines to keep the markets on the move. Apart from this, the long-lasting US-China trade tussle, America-Iran tussle, and coronavirus headlines will also closely follow. They could play a key role in determining risk levels in the market.
Top Economic Events to Watch This Week1 – JPY – Unemployment Rate – Tuesday – 00:30 GMTThis data is typically issued by the Japan Statistics Bureau, which measures the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. However, the upward readings indicate a lack of expansion within the Japanese labor market. This, in turn, rise tends to weaken the Japanese economy. Thus, the low reading is seen as positive or bullish for the JPY currency; conversely, the high figure is seen as negative (or bearish) the JPY currency.
Previous release
ACTUAL:2.8 %
DEV:-1.25
CONS:2.7 %
DATE: Fri May 28, 2021 04:30
2 – JPY – Retail Sales y/y – Tuesday- 00:50 GMT
The Retail Sales data is typically released by the Ministry of Economic, Trade, and Industry, which measures the total sales made through a business location. The principal activity is selling merchandise and related services to the general public for household or personal consumption. Changes in Retail Sales are broadly followed as an important indicator of consumer spending. Therefore, the high figures are seen as bullish for the JPY currency; conversely, the low figures are seen as negative (or bearish for the JPY currency.
Previous release
ACTUAL: 12 %
DEV: 15.3%
CONS: 11.9 %
DATE: Mon May 31, 2021, 04:50
3 – CB Consumer Confidence – Tuesday – 15:00 GMT
This data is released by the Conference Board, which measures the level of confidence that people have in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence indicates economic development. Conversely, a low level of consumer confidence drives the economic downturn. In simple words, the high reading is understood as positive or bullish for the USD currency; conversely, the low reading is seen as negative or bullish for the USD currency.Note: Due to restrictions from the Conference Board, our Economic Calendar does not provide this indicator’s figures.
4 – Non-Farm Employment Change – Wednesday – 13:15 GMT
This data is typically released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which shows the number of new jobs created during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses. The monthly changes in payrolls can be remarkably volatile due to their high relation with economic policy decisions made by the Central Bank. In that way, the high reading is understood as bullish for the USD currency. Conversely, the low reading is considered bearish for the USD currency.
Previous release
ACTUAL:978 K
DEV:3.07
CONS:650 K
DATE: Thu Jun 3, 2021, 17:15
5 – CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) – Wednesday – 13:30 GMT
Gross Domestic Product (MoM) – Statistics Canada usually released this data, which gauges the total value of all goods and services produced by Canada. The changes in the GDP price index are considered a broad measure of Canadian economic activity and health. Thus, the high figures are seen as positive or bullish for the CAD currency. Conversely, the falling trend is seen as bearish for the CAD currency.
Previous release
ACTUAL:1.1 %
DEV: 0.52
CONS: 1 %
DATE: Tue Jun 1, 2021, 17:30
6 – Crude Oil Inventories – Wednesday – 15:30 GMT
This data is released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which is a U.S. key indicator and primarily affects the Canadian dollar due to Canada’s sizable energy sector. It measures supply and demand imbalances in the market, leading to changes in production levels and price volatility. ‘Actual’ less than ‘Forecast’ is seen as bullish for USD currency.
7 – BoE’s Governor Bailey speech – Thursday – 10:00 GMTAndrew Bailey is the present Governor of England’s central bank. If we are talking about his career, he started this journey on Mar 16, 2020, at the end of Mark Carney’s session. He was working as the Chief Executive of the Financial Conduct Authority before being selected. This British central banker was also the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England from April 2013 to July 2016 and the Chief Cashier of the Bank of England from January 2004 until April 2011. As the current governor of England’s central bank, he controls short-term interest rates, which is why he has more influence over the U.K.’s currency value than any other person. So, traders closely observe his public engagements as they usually give detailed clues regarding future monetary policy. Thus, the hawkish tone is seen as bullish for GBP currency. Conversely, the dovish tone is understood as bearish for the GBP currency.
8 – OPEC-JMMC Meetings: – Thursday – All Day
These meetings are attended by representatives from the 13 OPEC members and 11 other oil-rich nations. However, the purpose of this meeting is to coordinate and unify the petroleum policies of its Member Countries and ensure the stabilization of oil markets in efforts to secure an efficient, economical, and regular supply of petroleum to consumers. They discuss multiple issues concerning energy markets and, most importantly, agree on how much oil they will produce. When the meeting is over, the officials usually talk with reporters throughout the day. As in result, the formal statement covering policy shifts and meeting objectives is released after the meetings have concluded.
9 – US ISM Manufacturing PMI – Thursday – 15:00 GMT :
ISM Manufacturing PMI – This data usually released by Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index, which shows business conditions in the U.S. manufacturing sector. It is one of the leading indicators of the overall economic situation in the United States. The result above 50 would be positive (or bullish) for the greenback. Conversely, the result below 50 is seen as bearish for the currency.
Previous release
ACTUAL: 61.2
DEV: 0.16
CONS:60.7
DATE: Tue Jun 1, 2021, 19:0010 – Unemployment Rate – Friday – 13:30 GMT
This data is typically released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is one of the key indicators for the U.S. Economy. It represents the percentage of people actively seeking employment and willing to work. If the rate goes upward, it shows a lack of expansion within the U.S. labor market. As a result, the rise in the unemployment rate leads to weakness in the U.S. economy. However, the low figure is seen as bullish for the USD. Conversely, the rise is seen as negative or bearish for the USD currency.Previous release
ACTUAL:5.8 %
DEV:-0.45
CONS:5.9 %
DATE: Fri Jun 4, 2021, 17:30
Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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