Weekly Outlook, Nov. 15 – 19, 2021: Top Economic Events to Watch This Week
Arslan Butt • 3 min read
The broad-based US dollar edged higher for the third day in a row after unexpectedly strong US inflation data surprised markets and led investors to raise their bets on a rate hike in the United States as early as mid-2022. According to data released on Wednesday, the consumer price index (CPI) jumped 6.2 percent year over year and 0.9 percent month over month in October, according to data released on Wednesday, while the core CPI rose 4.6 percent year over year and 0.6 percent month over month. The market’s optimistic mood, on the other hand, could limit the safe-haven US dollar’s gains.
Looking ahead to the coming week, plenty of retail sales and unemployment claims, as well as minutes from the ECB’s monetary policy meeting and remarks from ECB President Lagarde, might provide enough news to keep the markets moving. Apart from that, the speech of the Fed’s Williams will be widely watched, as it may play a crucial role in determining market risk levels.
The Top Economic Events to Watch This Week
1 – China Retail Sales – Monday – 2:00 GMT
The Retail Sales report is typically released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, which measures the total receipts of the retailed consumer goods. It represents the entire value of consumer goods supplied by various industries to households and social groupings via various routes. It’s a crucial indicator for analyzing developments in the Chinese retail market and determining its economic prosperity. In general, a high reading indicates that the CNY is positive (or bullish), while a low number indicates that the CNY is negative (or bearish).
ACTUAL: 4.4 %
CONS: 3.3 %
Mon Oct 18th, 2021 02:00
2 – AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes – Tuesday – 0:30 GMT
The Reserve Bank of Australia publishes the minutes of its meetings two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes describe the policy discussion in detail, including points of contention. They also keep records of the votes of the committee’s members. In general, if the RBA is pessimistic about the economy’s inflationary future, markets expect a rate hike sooner rather than later, which is good for the AUD.
ii) RBA Gov Lowe Speaks:
Glenn Stevens was replaced as governor of Australia’s central bank by Philip Lowe. Since February 2012, Lowe has served as the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Deputy Governor. He has greater power over the nation’s currency value than anybody else as the central bank’s head, which regulates short-term interest rates. Traders pay close attention to his public appearances since they frequently deliver subtle hints about future monetary policy.
3 – UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) – Wednesday – 7:00 GMT
The National Statistics’ Consumer Price Index is a measure of price changes based on comparing the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. Inflation reduces the purchasing power of the pound. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key indicator for measuring inflation and changes in purchasing patterns. Generally, a high reading for the GBP is considered optimistic (or bullish), while a low number is considered negative (or bearish).
ACTUAL: 3.1 %
CONS: 3.2 %
Wed Oct 20th, 2021 06:00
4 – US Initial Jobless Claims – Thursday – 13:30 GMT
The number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance is measured by the Initial Jobless Claims reported by the US Department of Labor. In other words, it serves as a gauge of labor market strength. A higher-than-expected number signals market weakness, which impacts the health and direction of the US economy. In general, a lower figure is considered positive or bullish for the USD.
Wed Nov 10th, 2021 13:30
5 – ECB President Lagarde Speaks – Friday – 8:00 GMT
Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank, was born in 1956 in France and formerly served as the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund and France’s Minister of Finance. She took over the ECB in November 2019 for an eight-year term. Lagarde holds news briefings as part of her position as a member of the Governing Council, where she explains how the ECB views the current and future state of the European economy. In the short term, her statements may have a positive or negative impact on the euro movement. A hawkish perspective favors the euro (bullish), while a dovish outlook favors the single currency (bearish) (bearish).