Weekly Outlook, Dec 13 – 17, 2021: Top Economic Events to Watch This Week
Arslan Butt • 3 min read
The US dollar was higher and will end this week on the bullish track as traders awaited US inflation data later in the day, which might confirm the path of interest rate hikes next year. The dollar index edged higher to 96.255, on track for its seventh weekly gain ahead of the data, which will be released at 1330 GMT. Annual price increases of 6.8% are predicted. On the flip side, the renewed concerns about COVID-19 and caution ahead of critical US inflation data aided further the dollar’s gains.
Moving on, the Retail Sales m/m and FOMC Statement, as well as a German Flash Manufacturing PMI and ECB Press Conference, are all expected to provide plenty of headlines in the next week to keep markets moving. Besides, coronavirus news will be closely observed because it may play an essential role in determining market risk levels.
Top Economic Events to Watch This Week
1 – Financial Stability Report – Monday – 17:00 GMT
The Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report, published twice a year under the guidance of the interim Financial Policy Committee, shows the Committee’s assessment of the outlook for financial sector stability and resilience at the time of the Report’s preparation. When the Bank of England is pessimistic about the economy, it is usually beneficial, or bullish, for the pound. Similarly, if the Bank of England adopts a dovish stance toward the UK economy and expresses concern about financial stability, this is negative or bearish.
2 – European M. Union Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) – Tuesday – 10:00 GMT
Eurostat publishes industrial production data, depicting production volume in industries like manufacturing and factories. The upward trend is thought to be inflationary, implying that interest rates would likely rise. When high industrial output growth is reported, it is usually seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while low industrial production is interpreted as negative (or bearish).
ACTUAL: -0.2 %
CONS: -0.5 %
Fri Nov 12th, 2021 10:00
3 – United States Retail Sales (MoM) – Wednesday – 13:30 GMT
The US Census Bureau publishes this information, which tracks the total receipts of retail stores. The pace of change in such sales is reflected in monthly percent changes. Variations in retail sales are typically seen as an early indicator of consumer spending. In general, a high rating for the USD is regarded as favorable (or bullish), whilst a low rating is regarded as unfavorable (or bearish).
ACTUAL: 1.7 %
Tue Nov 16th, 2021 13:30
4 – Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM) – Wednesday – 13:30 GMT
Statistics Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures price changes based on a comparison of the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. Inflation reduces the purchasing power of the Canadian dollar. For instance, the Bank of Canada attempts to keep inflation within a certain level (1 percent -3 percent ). A high reading is often regarded as indicating the probability of a rate hike and is therefore beneficial (or bullish) for the CAD.
ACTUAL: 0.7 %
CONS: 0.7 %
Wed Nov 17th, 2021 13:30
5 – Aussie Employment Change – Thursday – 0:30 GMT
Aussie Employment Change – The Australian Bureau of Statistics, which tracks the number of people employed in Australia, is usually the source of this information. In simpler terms, an increase in this indicator boosts consumer spending, which improves economic growth. As a result, high statistics for the AUD currency are regarded optimistic, while low figures are deemed negative (or bearish).
Thu Nov 11th, 2021 24:30
ii) – Unemployment Rate – The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases the Unemployment Rate, which is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed employees by the total civilian labor force. The Australian labor market will not expand if interest rates are hiked. As a result, a surge harms the Australian economy. A decrease in the figure is regarded as good (or bullish) for the Australian dollar, whereas an increase is regarded as negative (or bearish).
CONS: 4.7 %
Thu Nov 11th, 2021 24:30
6 – Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI – Thursday – 8:30 GMT
The Markit economics Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) measures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. The manufacturing PMI is an essential indication of business conditions and the general economic situation in Germany because the manufacturing industry contributes to a considerable portion of the total GDP. A result above 50 is considered bullish for the EUR, while below 50 is deemed to be bearish.
Wed Dec 1st, 2021 08:55
7- United Kingdom Retail Sales (MoM) – Friday – 07:00 GMT
The total receipts of retail stores are measured in the National Statistics’ retail sales report. The rate of change in such sales is reflected in monthly percent changes. Retail sales fluctuations are frequently regarded as a leading sign of consumer spending. Generally, a high reading for the GBP is considered positive or bullish, while a low reading is deemed to be negative or bearish.
ACTUAL: 0.8 %
CONS: 0.5 %
Fri Nov 19th, 2021 07:00