EUR/USD Dynamics: Uncertainty Ahead of Key Inflation Metrics

Posted Friday, September 29, 2023 by
Arslan Butt • 2 min read

During Friday’s Asian trading session, the EUR/USD pair displayed hesitation in building on its recent rebound from just beneath the significant 1.0500 mark—a new eight-month trough—and continued its constrained movement. As of now, with rates hovering around 1.0560, there’s no significant shift from the day’s opening. Market participants are keenly anticipating pivotal inflation data from both the Eurozone and the US.

Forecasts for the preliminary Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) predict a reduction in the annualized CPI from 5.3% down to 4.8% for September. In addition to this, mounting evidence suggests a cooling of hyperinflation in Germany, the continent’s powerhouse economy, coupled with growing recessionary concerns.

These indicators are increasingly pointing towards a potential interest rate cut as the European Central Bank’s (ECB) next strategic move. Such expectations, paired with a persistent bullish sentiment underpinning the US Dollar (USD), could potentially invite renewed bearish interest in the EUR/USD duo, extending the pronounced downtrend observed over the recent weeks.

The USD Index (DXY)—which measures the dollar against a collection of its counterparts—has temporarily halted its rollback from its highest point this year, a response to the release of somewhat lackluster US economic data. Data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reaffirmed that the globe’s premier economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.1%, consistent with prior estimates and market predictions. Yet, the GDP Price Index showed a dip from 2% down to 1.7%. This implies a deceleration in inflationary pressures, placing a drag on the USD. However, the persistent anticipation of the Federal Reserve retaining its assertive policy stance has buffered against more significant drawbacks.

Reinforcing this sentiment, the US central authority issued a warning recently, indicating that the persistent inflationary landscape in the US could necessitate another interest rate increment before the calendar year concludes. Corroborating this perspective, Minneapolis Fed President, Neel Kashkari, remarked earlier in the week that there remains uncertainty regarding the culmination of the central bank’s rate hike cycle, especially given the prevailing evidence of sustained economic vigor.

This robust economic footing, coupled with the overarching expectations, solidifies the case for the Federal Reserve maintaining or even enhancing interest rates for an extended period. Such a scenario supports higher US Treasury bond yields and provides tailwinds for USD enthusiasts, implying a probable continuation of the downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

That said, investors might exercise caution and withhold from taking decisive stances, especially ahead of the imminent release of the US Core PCE Price Index, a chief inflationary metric for the Federal Reserve. This impending data will be pivotal in shaping the market’s anticipations regarding the Federal Reserve’s subsequent policy directives, invariably influencing the USD’s trajectory and, by extension, imparting notable directional momentum to the EUR/USD pair as the week concludes. Yet, as it stands, the current trend suggests a possible close in negative territory for the EUR/USD for the eleventh consecutive week.

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