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Gold Tumbles Amid Strong US Jobs Data: Market Eyes Key Central Bank Decisions

Arslan Butt•Monday, December 11, 2023•2 min read

Gold’s price (XAU/USD) experienced a significant 1.5% drop, reaching a two-week low following robust U.S. employment data. The likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March 2024 has decreased as a result of this unexpectedly strong jobs report, which demonstrated a resilient U.S. economy.

Consequently, U.S. Treasury bond yields and the U.S. Dollar strengthened, exerting pressure on gold prices.

During Monday’s Asian trading session, gold’s downtrend persisted without strong follow-through, as geopolitical tensions and caution ahead of this week’s pivotal economic data and central bank events tempered trading activity. Investors are particularly focused on Tuesday’s U.S. consumer inflation figures and the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday.

Policy updates are also due from the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank on Thursday.

Market attention will then shift to flash PMI data from the Eurozone, UK, and U.S., providing insights into global economic health and potentially influencing gold prices. Currently, XAU/USD seems to have stabilized below the critical $2,000 level, with traders anticipating potential Federal Reserve policy shifts to prevent further declines.

Key factors impacting gold prices included:

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rebounded following positive U.S. job figures, bolstering the U.S. Dollar and impacting gold.
U.S. NFP data revealed 199K new jobs in November, exceeding expectations and highlighting labor market strength.
The U.S. Unemployment Rate fell to 3.7%, underscoring labor market robustness and adjusting Federal Reserve rate cut expectations.
Increased Middle Eastern geopolitical risks, including attacks on U.S. forces and the U.S. embassy in Baghdad, added to market uncertainty.
Market players are now eyeing upcoming U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve rate projections, alongside key central bank meetings.

Gold Technical Outlook

GOLD price action confirms a break below the bullish channel support, initiating a corrective phase from the recent rise, targeting 1977.46 initially. A breach here may lead to further declines towards 1938.00.

The bearish outlook is reinforced by the EMA50, with a break above 2016.90 and 2027.50 needed to negate this trend and resume the primary bullish trajectory.

Today’s expected trading range is between 1977.00 support and 2015.00 resistance, with the trend leaning bearish.

Gold XAU Live Chart

GOLD

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Index & Commodity Analyst

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.