U.S. Leading Economic Index Unexpectedly Pulls Back In March

The Conference Board released a report on Thursday showing an unexpected pullback by its index of leading U.S. economic indicators in the month of March.

The report said the leading economic index fell by 0.3 percent in March after rising by 0.2 percent in February. The modest advance in February marked the first increase by the leading index in two years.

Economists had expected the index to come in unchanged compared to the 0.1 percent uptick originally reported for the previous month.

“Negative contributions from the yield spread, new building permits, consumers’ outlook on business conditions, new orders, and initial unemployment insurance claims drove March’s decline,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.

She added, “Overall, the Index points to a fragile—even if not recessionary—outlook for the U.S. economy. Indeed, rising consumer debt, elevated interest rates, and persistent inflation pressures continue to pose risks to economic activity in 2024.”

The report also said the coincident economic index rose by 0.3 percent in March after inching up by 0.1 percent in February.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board said the lagging economic index came in unchanged in March after rising by 0.3 percent in February.