Bitcoin Rally Tied to Trump’s 2025 Odds and MicroStrategy’s Growth

Trump’s Election Odds Driving Bitcoin’s Surge

According to Bernstein’s analysts, Bitcoin’s correlation with Trump’s election odds has returned, leading to its recent upward trajectory. Trump is leading in five of six swing states, and as his election prospects improve, so does Bitcoin’s appeal.

This trend has caught the attention of market participants who see Trump’s potential return to the White House as bullish for the digital asset market. Despite bipartisan support for digital currencies, analysts believe Trump’s leadership could lead to a more favorable regulatory environment for Bitcoin, providing further price support.

MicroStrategy’s Impact on Bitcoin’s Growth

Another critical factor behind Bitcoin’s rally is MicroStrategy’s continued influence on the market.

The company, led by CEO Michael Saylor, has significantly increased its Bitcoin holdings, with its stock soaring 191% in 2024—outpacing Bitcoin’s own 55% gain this year.

MicroStrategy’s strategy of issuing equity and convertible debt to acquire Bitcoin at its lower price points has paid off, rewarding the company with substantial market gains.

The company’s stock performance has become a key signal of Bitcoin’s future breakout potential.

Could MSTR's Reflexivity Reflect on Bitcoin?
Yes, MSTR's reflexivity could impact Bitcoin directly. MicroStrategy’s large Bitcoin holdings make it a proxy for Bitcoin itself, meaning that movements in MSTR’s stock price could influence Bitcoin, especially if MSTR’s role in the…

— Focoinvestor (@focoinvestor) October 16, 2024

Standard Chartered also supports the bullish outlook, predicting Bitcoin could reach $73,800 before the U.S. election, representing a 12% upside from current levels.

The bank’s head of digital asset research, Geoff Kendrick, points to easing regulations, such as BNY Mellon’s exemption from SAB 121, which required crypto to be listed on balance sheets, as a key tailwind for Bitcoin.

Kendrick also cites MicroStrategy’s recent plans to become a “Bitcoin bank,” allowing the company to offer capital market instruments and potentially lend Bitcoin in the future.

Outlook for Bitcoin

Looking ahead, analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s prospects. While some believe Trump’s potential presidency could be the most bullish scenario, others argue that regardless of the election outcome, Bitcoin is poised to benefit from the broader acceptance of digital assets.

Standard Chartered suggests that Bitcoin could surge to $125,000 by the end of 2024 if Trump returns to the White House, highlighting the growing institutional interest in the cryptocurrency.

With MicroStrategy’s performance and Trump’s election odds both acting as strong catalysts, Bitcoin’s rally may be just beginning.