DAX: Factory Orders Decline More than forecasts – EU Stocks Get Boost from Citi & DB

Factory orders fell sharply in November along with an unexpected decline in retail sales. Citi Group and Deutsche Bank tell investors European stocks are starting to look cheap.

dax continues rally despite poor economic data

The DAX continued its new year rally posting a gain of 0.42%, looking to add 3 consecutive rallies this week. The German stock market continues to be unabated by weak economic data published today.

The rally is fueled by ECB policy and today’s extra momentum from two large banks giving European stocks a favorable outlook.

Economic Data Still Shows Sluggish Economy

Factory orders fell sharply in November mainly due to a big drop in Large Orders. Forecasts were for no change, so the drop of 5.4% in one month came as a surprise.

On the brighter side, excluding the large order category, orders were up 0.2% over the previous month. While for the 3-month period from September to November, orders were up 1.7% compared to the previous period.

Retail sales data showed an even larger surprise, where analysts expected a rise of 0.5%, but data showed a drop of 0.6% in November.

The data indicates that the sluggish to contracting German economy doesn’t seem to be pulling itself up any time soon.

DAX Live Chart

DAX

 

Citi and Deutsche Bank Bullish on Eurozone Stocks

Both banks saw European stocks lagged US counterparts during 2024, leaving many valuations at attractive levels going into 2025.

ECB policy leading to lower interest rates in 2025 and hopes for a solid corporate earnings season could create a boost to investor sentiment throughout the year.

“European equities have been in the eye of the storm in 2H24 … however, we argue the time might be right to re-engage with European equities,” analysts from Citi wrote in a note to investors.

Deutsche Bank analysts stated that concerns about Trump tariffs would be overturned by a strong dollar, alleviating export woes.

Citi sees the Stoxx600 index with a potential to gain 11%, while Deutsche Bank sees the upside risk as high as 15% for 2025.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More
Gino Bruno D'Alessio
Gino D’Alessio is a professional Forex trader with 20+ years of experience in the financial markets as a broker-dealer. Having worked in New York and London, Gino is regularly featured on Seeking Alpha. He completed the CAIA program in 2015, which also gave great insight into global macro factors. His main focus is FX majors, indices and commodities.
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