Could Bitcoin Price See a Dip to $78,000 Before Making New Highs?
Market analysts are eagerly observing a CME futures gap below $80,000 that can indicate a notable short-term price shift as Bitcoin (BTC) keeps consolidating around the $100,000 barrier in early 2025.
Although BTC/USD has kept amazing increases from its last cycle, several elements point to a possible retracing before it keeps on its increasing path.
Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Bitcoin Price Action
The conventional financial industry presents several direct problems for the bitcoin market. Not seen since April 2024, the 10-year bond yield has lately exceeded the critical 4.7% mark. Furthermore attentively observing the forthcoming FOMC meeting on January 29 is market players, which could influence the near-term price movement of Bitcoin.
Head of crypto futures at HighStrike, JJ, says that tight Federal Reserve policies could force Bitcoin’s present trading range under pressure: “Should the market continue to price in more restrictive Fed policy following this week’s CPI report and retail sales data, Bitcoin may struggle to maintain its $90,000-$100,000 consolidation range.”
BTC’s Long-term Outlook Remains Bullish
Analysts keep a very optimistic long-term view despite possible transient instability. While VanEck anticipates a more conservative $180,000 by the end of 2025, crypto analyst Will Clemente advises nation-state acceptance might drive Bitcoin toward the $1 million threshold.
Given Bitcoin’s increasing institutional acceptance and possible function as a strategic reserve asset, crypto trader Alex Becker contends that present pricing objectives around $150,000 are “absolutely silly low.” Given its present market capitalization of $1.97 trillion against that of gold’s $18.44 trillion, Bitcoin seems to have great opportunity for expansion.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Testing Support at 50-Day SMA
Having shown substantial volatility since the beginning of 2025, Bitcoin is presently trading at $101,175. The latest dip to $89,600 on January 13 has attracted notice to a substantial CME futures gap between $77,900 and $80,900 developed during November 2024.
Bitcoin has been challenging support at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on CME futures, observes managing partner of Biyond Trader Nathan Batchelor. Batchelor says, “if the 50-day SMA gives way and starts to curve lower, we could see increased downside pressure toward the 100-day SMA, which notably coincides with the price gap around $78,855.”
Factors Supporting Bitcoin Rally in the Future
Three main elements could help Bitcoin to remain long-term price stable at $100,000:
- Regulatory reforms, including the potential repeal of SAB 121, which would allow banks to classify custodial crypto holdings as off-balance-sheet items
- Retirement account reform that could enable ERISA fiduciaries to allocate assets to Bitcoin
- Bitcoin’s emerging role as a strategic reserve asset, particularly under the incoming Trump administration
Near-Term Bitcoin Price Prediction
Technical indicators and market structure point to Bitcoin maybe seeing a drop to the $77,900-$78,855 level in Q1 2025. This action would correspond with closing the CME gap and verifying noteworthy degrees of support. But before the next leg up into expected targets of $180,000-$200,000 by mid-2025, such a retracing could offer a solid buying opportunity.
The UTXO noted that low volume between current levels and $74,500 indicates that any negative action could be quick once important support levels collapse. Still, the spot price stays 9% above the short-term holder cost basis, suggesting the market is still within usual bull market range.
