WTI Crude Dips to $56 as OPEC+ Adds 411K Barrels, Tensions Escalate

WTI crude oil fell 3% to $56.13 on Monday as OPEC+ announced a 411,000 bbl/d production increase for June. This is the second month in a row of supply growth and could add 2.2 million bbl/d to the market by November. Saudi Arabia led the decision, which comes as the alliance is facing growing friction with members who have breached their production quotas.

This has rekindled worries of a supply glut at a time when global demand is uncertain. For traders, it’s not just about volume, it’s about timing. The oil market is already under pressure from weak macro data and slowing Chinese industrial output.

OPEC+ Update:

• June Increase: +411,000 bbl/d

• Return to Market: 2.2 million bbl/d by November

• Saudi Arabia’s Goal: Enforce production discipline

Geopolitical Risks Add to Volatility

Beyond the supply fundamentals, geopolitical risks are adding another layer of complexity. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has threatened retaliation after a missile strike by Iran-backed Houthi forces landed near Tel Aviv’s main airport. The strike has heightened tensions in the region at a time when oil traders are already on edge.

Iran responded quickly. Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh said any military action from the US or Israel would prompt a direct and forceful response. While these tensions have historically supported oil prices, the current weight of supply fears seems to be dominating the narrative.

Global energy traders are now watching to see if the Middle East will disrupt supply chains or just be noise amidst the bigger supply-demand imbalances.

Technicals Suggest More Downside

WTI crude oil is struggling to hold above $56.13, below the 50-period EMA at $58.94 and in a defined downtrend. A short-term bounce to $56.50-$56.70 is possible but that zone may act as resistance unless accompanied by strong buying volume.

The MACD is weak and below zero, confirming the bearish bias. If WTI fails to get back above $56.70, the next support is $55.35. A close below that could lead to $54.47.

Trade Setup:

• Bearish Entry: Close below $55.35

• Target: $54.47

• Bullish: Above $56.70 → $57.71

• Stop: Above $56.70 (bear) or below $55.35 (bull)

Rule: Don’t forecast—wait. Let price tell you.