WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) Pops to $63+ as Israel-Iran Tensions Flare—Will $65 Be Next?

WTI crude oil surged past $63 per barrel on Wednesday after reports emerged that Israel may be planning a strike on Iranian nuclear sites. While the decision isn’t finalized, the headline was enough to jolt markets, reviving fears of a broader regional conflict.

Traders are worried that Iran could shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a major energy artery. The strait handles about 20% of the world’s oil supply, with exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and the UAE passing through its waters. Any disruption would surely spike prices and rattle already fragile supply chains.

The geopolitical tension adds another layer of uncertainty to the US-Russia ceasefire talks on Ukraine, and increases the risk premium on energy commodities.

Inventory Data Throws a Twist

While Middle East escalation fueled the rally, US inventory data was a surprise counterweight. The American Petroleum Institute (API) said US crude stockpiles rose 2.5 million barrels last week, on top of a 4.3 million-barrel gain the week before. Analysts had expected a 1.9 million-barrel draw.

This inventory build suggests softer demand or overstocking – factors that could slow down the oil rally if geopolitical risks ease. For now, the war headlines are trumping the fundamentals.

WTI Crude Oil – Technical Analaysis Point Up

WTI crude is $63.01, at the top of the $63.80 supply zone. The price action is in an ascending triangle, a trend continuation pattern. Bulls have a series of higher lows, supported by $62.70–$62.20.

The 50-period EMA at $62.20 is up, and the MACD has a bullish crossover, and the histogram is expanding.

Two Scenarios to Watch:

• Breakout Play: A clean move above $63.80 could go to $64.80, with a target at $65.67.

• Pullback Opportunity: A dip to $62.70–$62.20 could be a second chance to get in if the trendline holds.

Levels:

• Resistance: $63.80, $64.80, $65.67

• Support: $62.70–$62.20, $61.48, $60.09

As long as WTI is above the trendline and dynamic support, the trend is up. Above $63.80 and it’s green light to go up.