AUD/USD Price Targets $0.6555 as Bulls Defend $0.6515 Support Zone

The Aussie is rebounding during the European session with AUD/USD trading at 0.6521, up 0.04% intraday. The pair has recovered...

Written by: Arslan Butt • Wednesday, June 11, 2025 • 2 min read

• Last updated: Wednesday, June 11, 2025

Quick overview

AUD/USD is rebounding during the European session, trading at 0.6521, supported by a softer US Dollar and improved risk sentiment.
Initial losses were triggered by doubts over the US-China trade deal, but the pair found buyers at key support levels.
Traders are focused on the upcoming US CPI data, which could influence the USD and impact AUD/USD's trajectory.
Technically, AUD/USD is supported above key levels, with a potential breakout above 0.6538 or a reversal below 0.6496.

The Aussie is rebounding during the European session with AUD/USD trading at 0.6521, up 0.04% intraday. The pair has recovered from early session weakness caused by fading US-China trade deal enthusiasm and is now finding support from a softer US Dollar and improving risk sentiment.

US-China Deal Doubts Trigger Early Pullback

Initial losses in AUD/USD followed waning optimism over the US-China agreement. While the deal reduces tariffs and looser rare earth export restrictions, the lack of clarity on enforcement dampened the enthusiasm. So AUD/USD dipped early but found buyers at key levels.

That bearish pressure soon faded as sentiment improved. Risk appetite stabilised and the pair regained momentum and retook the 0.6520-0.6530 range.

US CPI in Focus as Dollar Softens

The US Dollar Index (DXY) retreated from 99.20 to below 99.00 and helped the Aussie’s recovery. Traders are now looking at today’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data which is expected to show 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y, with Core CPI at 0.3% m/m and 2.9% y/y.

A hot inflation number could support the USD and weigh on AUD/USD.
A soft CPI would reinforce the dovish Fed narrative and boost the Aussie.

Also, markets are watching the $39B 10-year Treasury auction, if demand is weak it could further weaken the USD.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis – Compression Signals Breakout

Technically, AUD/USD is supported above the ascending trendline from late May, with the 50-hour EMA at 0.6515 also acting as support. The dip to 0.6496 was quickly reversed, confirming buyers at lower levels.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview — AUD/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Key levels:

Support: 0.6515 (EMA/trendline), 0.6496
Resistance: 0.6538 (horizontal), 0.6555, 0.6575

MACD is flat near the zero line, building pressure for a breakout.

Watch for:

A bullish candle above 0.6538 to confirm the upside breakout
A breakdown below 0.6496 for a short-term reversal

AUD/USD is compressed below the resistance. A breakout above 0.6538 could go to 0.6555 and 0.6575. But a close below 0.6515 and it’s 0.6496. Inflation data and bond auction results will be the trigger.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.