JSE Top 40 Eyes 89,691 as Rand Gains and Manufacturing Shows a Rebound

The rand is gaining traction, supported by better than expected manufacturing data and renewed optimism in US-China trade talks...

Written by: Arslan Butt • Wednesday, June 11, 2025 • 2 min read

• Last updated: Wednesday, June 11, 2025

Quick overview

The rand is strengthening due to positive manufacturing data and optimism in US-China trade talks.
Institutional investors are cautiously optimistic, increasing capital in South African markets despite global equity stagnation.
SA's manufacturing sector shows growth, enhancing the case for economic stabilization and attracting attention to government bond auctions.
The JSE Top 40 Index remains in an uptrend, with potential breakout targets set at 89,691 and 90,019.

The rand is gaining traction, supported by better than expected manufacturing data and renewed optimism in US-China trade talks. The macro drivers are boosting risk appetite and the JSE Top 40 Index is continuing to edge higher within a well defined uptrend.

Institutional investors are cautious but optimistic, driving capital into SA markets despite global equities going nowhere. The rand is strengthening against the dollar and data is pointing to an uptick in industrial production, so the near term outlook is looking better.

Gold is flat, the US dollar is stable and Moody’s is still cautious on SA’s credit rating – a reminder that structural reform is still needed for sustained investor confidence.

Manufacturing Data and Bond Auctions in Focus

SA’s manufacturing sector is showing signs of life. Month on month growth in output is strengthening the case for economic stabilisation and government bond auctions are getting more attention from foreign and local investors.

The results of these auctions will be watched closely as the government navigates fiscal challenges. Market participants are also keeping an eye on inflation and unemployment which are still weighing on long term growth.

Key indicators this week:

Rand strengthens, investor confidence grows
Manufacturing output beats expectations
Moody’s holds outlook steady, eyes fiscal policy reform

JSE Top 40 Technicals: 89,691 in Sight

Technically the JSE Top 40 Index (SA40) is still in an uptrend, trading within a bullish channel that has been intact since mid May. On the 2 hour chart, bulls are defending 88,554, the 50-EMA (now at 87,955) is the dynamic floor.

JSE Price Chart - Source: Tradingview — JSE Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

After consolidating at 89,331 the index is poised for a breakout to 89,691 with a secondary target at 90,019 if momentum returns. Although MACD momentum has cooled, it hasn’t flipped bearish – so it’s a pause not a reversal.

Trade Setup Summary:

Entry: Above 89,331 (breakout confirmation)
Stop-loss: Below 88,554
Target 1: 89,691
Target 2: 90,019
Risk Level: Moderate. Wait for MACD uptick or bullish candle confirmation.

Conclusion

SA’s equity outlook is getting better with firmer macro, a stronger rand and rising industrial production. External risks like global inflation and geopolitics are still there but the JSE Top 40 is still in its channel. Above 89,331 and the next leg higher could be on – making the index the outperformer in emerging markets.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.