GBP/USD Price Hits 1.3764: Trump Targets Fed as Bulls Eye 1.3803 Next
The GBP/USD pair extended its winning streak on Thursday, rising to 1.3764—its highest level in over three years—marking four straight days.
Quick overview
- The GBP/USD pair reached 1.3764, its highest level in over three years, marking four consecutive days of gains despite UK labor market concerns.
- Former President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and hinted at potential successors, contributing to the US Dollar's decline.
- The British Chambers of Commerce reported that nearly one-third of SMEs are reducing staff due to rising National Insurance contributions, yet the Pound remains strong.
- Technically, GBP/USD is in an uptrend with key support at 1.3700, while signs of bearish divergence in momentum could indicate a potential pullback.
The GBP/USD pair extended its winning streak on Thursday, rising to 1.3764—its highest level in over three years—marking four straight days of gains. This strength came despite ongoing concerns about the UK labor market. The real story, however, was the sharp pullback in the US Dollar.
Former President Donald Trump took fresh aim at the Federal Reserve, calling Chair Jerome Powell “terrible” and suggesting he has several candidates ready to replace him if re-elected, including Kevin Warsh and Christopher Waller. According to a Wall Street Journal report, Trump may announce Powell’s successor as early as this summer. Meanwhile, Powell’s testimony before the Senate painted a measured, data-driven approach amid inflation worries driven by tariffs.
Markets remain on edge as Powell hinted that rate cuts may be delayed if inflation lingers, although softer data could revive easing hopes. The mixed Fed signals combined with political pressure added to the USD’s decline, lifting the GBP/USD pair.
Pound Holds Firm Despite Labor Pressures
Back in the UK, the British Chambers of Commerce flagged that nearly one-third of SMEs are reducing staff due to rising employer National Insurance contributions—up from 13.8% to 15%. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey also acknowledged softening labor conditions and a potential slowdown in wage growth.
Despite these local headwinds, the Pound was the second-best performing G10 currency on Thursday, trailing only the Japanese Yen. A Citi/YouGov survey added a dovish twist, showing UK inflation expectations dipped slightly to 3.9% in June from 4% in May—giving the BoE more breathing room on rate decisions.
Yet markets chose to focus more on US Dollar fragility than UK economic stress, keeping the GBP/USD well bid.
Technical Outlook: Bulls Defend 1.3700 Support
From a technical standpoint, GBP/USD remains in a solid uptrend within an ascending channel on the hourly chart. After testing the upper resistance near 1.3764, prices pulled back to 1.3700—a key confluence of channel support and minor horizontal structure.
The 50-period EMA at 1.3649 continues to offer dynamic support. However, the MACD shows early signs of bearish divergence as the histogram prints lower bars and the signal line crossover hints at cooling momentum.
- Support zone: 1.3700–1.3650
- Resistance targets: 1.3764, 1.3803, 1.3841
- Bullish signal: Spinning top forming near support
- Invalidation level: Close below 1.3640
If a bullish engulfing candle forms at current levels, it could set the stage for another leg higher toward 1.3803 or even 1.3841.
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