Oil Weekly Forecast: WTI Slides 15% as Ceasefire and OPEC Output Pressure Prices

WTI crude oil drops 15% to $65 amid easing Israel–Iran tensions and rising OPEC output. Here's what to watch this week including JOLTS, NFP.

Written by: Arslan Butt • Sunday, June 29, 2025 • 2 min read

• Last updated: Sunday, June 29, 2025

Oil Weekly Forecast: WTI Slides 15% as Ceasefire and OPEC Output Pressure Prices

Quick overview

WTI crude oil drops 15% to $65 amid easing Israel–Iran tensions and rising OPEC output. Here's what to watch this week including JOLTS, NFP, and ISM data.

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is ending June under pressure, trading near $65.03 after tumbling 15% from its earlier peak at $77.11. That drop marks the sharpest weekly slide since March 2023.

In my experience, such a steep correction usually reflects more than just one trigger—it’s a combination of cooling geopolitical tensions and a fresh wave of supply pressure.

On the chart, WTI remains pinned below the 50-day EMA ($67.65), while the MACD stays negative, and lower highs continue to reinforce the downtrend. A descending triangle is also forming on the 4-hour chart, with $64 acting as the key line in the sand.

If that gives way, I’m eyeing $62.85 and $61.47 as next levels.

USOIL Price Chart - Source: Tradingview — USOIL Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Ceasefire Relief and Rising OPEC Output Hit Oil Bulls

The price drop followed a fragile ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, cooling fears of a wider regional conflict. The brief but intense flare-up (June 13–22) saw Israeli airstrikes and Iranian missile retaliation, pushing oil higher before diplomacy stepped in.

With mediation from Trump and Qatar, tensions eased, though Iran has warned the peace may not last.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ has quietly raised output, pressuring oil even further. Traders are now unwinding the war premium and factoring in a possible oversupply narrative as Q3 approaches.

What Could Move WTI This Week

This week’s U.S. economic calendar could inject fresh volatility:

Tuesday:

Fed Chair Powell speaks
ISM Manufacturing PMI
JOLTS Job Openings

Wednesday:

ADP Employment Report

Thursday:

Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
ISM Services PMI

If job numbers come in strong and inflation remains sticky, it could revive hopes for demand resilience, bullish for oil. But if the data points to a slowdown, expect prices to stay under pressure.

USOIL Trade Setup: Bears Still Have the Upper Hand

Unless WTI reclaims $67.65, the bias remains bearish heading into July. Here’s the setup I’m watching:

Entry: Short below $64.00 on confirmed breakdown
Targets: $62.85 → $61.47
Stop-loss: Above $67.10

What I often see is that when geopolitics cool off and data is uncertain, price action tends to follow the technicals. And right now, WTI’s chart still favors the bears.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.