EUR/USD Price Eyes 1.1814 as Weak US Data Fuels Rate Cut Bets and Euro Resilience

EUR/USD extended its rally during the Asian session, pushing toward 1.1740 as traders responded to renewed U.S. dollar weakness.

Written by: Arslan Butt • Monday, June 30, 2025 • 2 min read

• Last updated: Monday, June 30, 2025

Quick overview

EUR/USD extended its rally towards 1.1740 due to renewed U.S. dollar weakness and disappointing U.S. economic data.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates increasing odds of multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts by year-end, benefiting the euro.
Despite a decline in German retail sales, the euro remains stable as traders focus on U.S. policy shifts and ECB positioning.
Technically, EUR/USD is above key support levels, with a bullish-to-neutral bias as long as it holds above 1.1671.

EUR/USD extended its rally during the Asian session, pushing toward 1.1740 as traders responded to renewed U.S. dollar weakness. Friday’s disappointing economic data, particularly the unexpected drop in personal spending and a 0.4% decline in personal income, has added weight to expectations that the Federal Reserve could start cutting rates as early as September.

The CME FedWatch Tool now shows increasing odds of multiple cuts by year-end, putting further pressure on the greenback. As the Fed turns more dovish, the euro is benefiting from the narrowing policy divergence with the ECB.

Even with mixed Eurozone data, EUR/USD has held firm, as broader dollar sentiment takes precedence in the near term.

Euro Shrugs Off German Retail Miss as ECB Holds Steady

German retail sales declined 1.6% MoM in May, missing forecasts for a 0.5% rise. April’s data was also revised lower, though year-over-year sales still climbed 1.6%, offering some balance.

Despite the weak print, the euro barely flinched. Traders appear more focused on macro shifts in U.S. policy and relative central bank positioning. ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot reinforced a more cautious easing outlook, calling the current rate “a good place to be,” and suggesting only one more rate cut through 2025.

That comparatively hawkish stance continues to support the euro against a softening dollar.

Technical Picture: Holding Above Key Support

Technically, EUR/USD is respecting an ascending trendline that’s been in place since the June 22 low. The pair also remains above its 50-period EMA at 1.1671, though momentum is showing signs of fatigue.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview — EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Key Levels to Watch:

Support: 1.1699 → 1.1671 → 1.1658
Resistance: 1.1753 → 1.1781 → 1.1814
MACD: Weakening momentum with signal lines nearing zero
Bias: Bullish-to-neutral while above 1.1671

If EUR/USD holds above 1.1699, the trend remains constructive. A confirmed breakout above 1.1753 would open the door to 1.1814, while a break below the trendline support at 1.1671 could shift bias to neutral or bearish.

EUR/USD Outlook

For now, EUR/USD remains supported by macro divergence and stable ECB signals. If U.S. data continues to disappoint, and the Fed leans further into easing, the euro may continue grinding higher. Traders should watch for volume confirmation and MACD crossovers to validate the next move.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.