Solana’s First US Staking ETF Launches Amid Mixed Signals: Technical Analysis Points to Cautious Optimism
Solana (SOL) is holding above $153, up over 1% in the past 24 hours, following a 12% surge over the last week driven by the imminent launch
Quick overview
- Solana (SOL) is currently priced above $153, experiencing a 1% increase in the last 24 hours after a 12% surge driven by the launch of the first U.S. Solana staking ETF.
- The ETF allows investors direct access to SOL and staking rewards without the usual SEC clearance, but concerns about institutional interest and market dynamics persist.
- Technical analysis indicates resistance in the $160–165 range, with potential for a bull flag pattern, while support is seen at $145–150.
- Despite growth in decentralized exchange volumes, overall network activity remains low, and SOL is expected to trade within a range of $140 to $170 in the coming weeks.
Solana SOL/USD is holding above $153, up over 1% in the past 24 hours, following a 12% surge over the last week driven by the imminent launch of the first U.S. Solana staking ETF. The REX-Osprey Solana and Staking ETF officially started on Wednesday. It gives investors direct access to SOL and staking rewards using a special C-Corporation structure that doesn’t need to go through the usual SEC clearance processes.
After the news, SOL’s price shot up 7% to $161 right away, but it then fell back to its current position of about $153.70, which is a small 1% increase over the past 24 hours. This price movement shows that the market was first excited, but then it became worried about whether institutions would continue to use the product.
SOL/USD Technical Analysis Reveals Resistance at Key Levels
From a technical point of view, SOL’s price movement after the ETF announcement has been interesting. The fact that the token was able to momentarily touch $161 before going back down shows that there is substantial resistance in the $160–165 zone. The latest consolidation above $153 shows that buyers are protecting this level as a fresh support zone.
The 12-hour chart reveals that SOL is trading in a certain range, and the latest rise could be the start of a bull flag pattern. But the fact that the price didn’t stay above $160 makes us wonder how strong the present upswing is. The initial rise in trading volume was big, but it has already returned to normal levels, which means the market is waiting for more catalysts.
Immediate resistance is at $160–165, and if the price breaks over that, it could go for the $180–190 range. Support is at $145–150, and if that level is broken, the price could drop to the $130–135 zone.
Market Structure Headwinds Dampen Long-Term Outlook
Even though the ETF launch was a big deal, SOL’s potential for growth is limited by a number of structural constraints. The biggest worry is how much less interest there is from institutions compared to other big cryptocurrencies. Grayscale’s current Solana Trust (GSOL) only has $75 million in assets, which is a little amount compared to the $10 billion that the Ethereum Trust had before it launched its spot ETF.
Also, over $585 million worth of SOL is set to unlock from staking over the next two months, which might put pressure on the market to sell. This extra supply is happening at the same time as continued sell-offs from successful Solana-based apps. For example, in 2025 alone, platforms like Pump.fun sent more over $404 million worth of SOL to exchanges.
The SOL futures funding rate is currently at neutral, even though it has gone up recently. This shows that traders are not actively betting on more gains. The fact that there isn’t much leveraged interest shows that the market is still wary of SOL’s short-term future.
Solana Network Activity Concerns Persist Despite DeFi Growth
Solana’s decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes have been growing, and they recently passed Ethereum in this area. However, overall network activity is still low. Even if the memecoin craze has led to more activity on DEX, network revenue has dropped by more than 90% since January.
The competition has also gotten tougher. For example, Robinhood has chosen Ethereum layer-2 solutions for trading tokenized stocks, while Coinbase has teamed up with Shopify on the Base network for on-chain payments. These changes show that Solana is still having trouble establishing itself as the best infrastructure for applications that need to process a lot of data quickly.
Solana Price Prediction: Cautious Range-Bound Trading Expected
Based on what we know about SOL’s technical and fundamental situation, it looks like it will trade between $140 and $170 for the next 30 to 60 days. The launch of the ETF is a good thing, but there are also token unlocks coming up, worries about institutional demand, and competition that make it seem like there isn’t much room for growth in the near future.
SOL would need either a big rise in institutional use of the new ETF product or a wider cryptocurrency surge caused by better market sentiment for it to break out over $180 and aim for $200. SOL is currently 47% behind its all-time high of $295, which means it has a long way to go before it can reach those heights again.
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