Apple Stock Hits 3-Month High on 11.5% App Store Surge, Key Test Above

Quick overview

Apple stock delivered an impressive breakout this week, overcoming recent underperformance with a four-day rally driven by tech partnership speculation.

Apple Defies Tech Weakness to Post Strong Weekly Gains

Early in the week, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) stood out from a generally weaker technology sector, extending a four-day winning streak that carried its share price to the highest level since late March. After closing the prior week at $201, Apple’s stock surged to $212.53 by week’s end, marking an impressive 6% weekly gain. This breakout ended a three-month range-bound pattern that had frustrated investors seeking signs of renewed upside.

Partnership Rumors Ignite the Rally

The surge was fueled in part by reports that Apple is exploring partnerships with AI leaders OpenAI and Anthropic to power the next generation of its Siri voice assistant. Facing criticism for lagging behind rivals in deploying advanced voice technology, Apple is reportedly considering using external AI models instead of relying solely on its in-house solutions.

This potential pivot comes at a critical time. Apple’s June Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) was widely seen as underwhelming, failing to excite investors with major new product announcements or AI breakthroughs. The news of a strategic collaboration helped reverse that disappointment, signaling Apple’s determination to stay competitive in the rapidly evolving tech space.

A Comeback After a Tough Start to 2025

Apple entered 2025 in solid shape after closing 2024 with record highs above $260. But the new year brought sharp headwinds. A combination of sector-wide selling, geopolitical tensions, and new US tariffs on Chinese imports triggered a dramatic selloff across tech stocks. Apple was hit particularly hard, shedding around 35% in Q1 2025 as its share price plunged to a low near $169 in early April.

Unlike some peers in the Magnificent Seven group that continued to hit new record highs in Q2, Apple lagged. It was the only member of the group to post a loss for the second quarter, down nearly 8% as of late June. This underperformance made this week’s breakout all the more significant, suggesting a potential shift in sentiment.

AAPL Weekly Chart – Facing the 50 SMA

Bank of America is standing by its bullish outlook on Apple after new data showed a 12% year-over-year increase in App Store revenue for June. Apple’s App Store results for the fiscal third quarter reveal a healthy shift in spending patterns, with users increasingly embracing non-gaming apps.

This diversification is a strong signal of resilience and growth for Apple’s services segment—a key revenue driver as the company aims to balance its hardware and software ecosystem for long-term stability.

Bank of America Report Highlights

• Apple’s App Store generated $8.4 billion in revenue during its fiscal third quarter.
• This figure represents 11.5% growth compared to the same period last year, underscoring continued strength in Apple’s services business.
• Download and Revenue Trends
• Total app downloads increased 4.3% year-on-year to 8.6 billion.
• Revenue per download rose nearly 7% to $0.98, suggesting users are spending more on average for each app.
• June-Specific Performance
• In June alone, downloads rose a modest 3%, while revenue grew by 12%.
• This indicates a clear trend of increased spending per app despite slower download growth.

Category Breakdown

• Growth was driven mainly by non-gaming categories, signaling a shift in user habits.
• While gaming remains the largest single category, its share of total App Store revenue has fallen to 45%, down from over 50% in prior years.
• The expansion of non-gaming revenue sources points to a broadening appeal and diversification of Apple’s app ecosystem.

Analyst Commentary

• Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan noted that the growth in non-gaming app revenue is a positive sign for Apple.
• It reflects momentum in the broader services business, helping Apple reduce dependence on gaming-related spending.

Key Technical Levels and Outlook

Following the steep Q1 drop, Apple stock found solid technical support at its 100-week simple moving average (SMA) in early April, launching a slow recovery. Despite trading sideways for much of Q2, this week’s surge signals a fresh attempt to regain momentum. Technically, the next critical test lies at the 50-week SMA, currently around $216. Breaking through this level convincingly next week could confirm that the broader bullish trend is resuming.

Conclusion: Apple’s four-day rally offers a much-needed boost for investors who endured a rough first half of the year. With AI-driven optimism rekindling interest and key technical resistance levels in sight, the coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether AAPL can sustain its breakout and close the gap with other leading tech giants.

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Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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