Gold Price Prediction: Tariffs, Inflation, Job Market Support XAU
Despite global volatility and evolving rate expectations, gold continues to find strong support after its parabolic climb over recent quarte
Quick overview
- Gold continues to show strong support after a significant rally, reaching prices above $3,500/oz in April 2025.
- Geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a moderation in gold's upward momentum despite ongoing safe-haven demand.
- Recent U.S. inflation data has had a muted impact on gold prices, with traders focusing on structural investment changes and tariff uncertainties.
- Gold's buying momentum remains robust, as evidenced by a sharp rebound from a dip near $3,300, indicating strong underlying demand.
Live GOLD Chart
Despite global volatility and evolving rate expectations, gold continues to find strong support after its parabolic climb over recent quarters.
Geopolitical Risk Fades, But Support Remains Intact
After an impressive rally that began in late 2023 and pushed prices above $3,500/oz in April 2025, gold (XAU/USD) is showing signs of cooling—though not retreating. While the safe-haven appeal of the precious metal remains strong due to persistent geopolitical concerns and Federal Reserve policy bets, the bullish pace has moderated.
Technically, the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) remains a key support level on the weekly chart, keeping medium-term momentum intact. A key driver behind gold’s surge in recent weeks was the flare-up in Middle East tensions. Escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, coupled with fears of direct U.S. military action, triggered a wave of buying that pushed prices past $3,445/oz.
XAU Chart Weekly – The 20 SMA Holds As Support
However, diplomatic backchannels and signals from Washington suggesting minimal involvement helped ease tensions. This caused the risk premium built into gold to quickly deflate, slowing upward momentum and capping any immediate move toward fresh all-time highs.
Inflation, Tariff Threats, and Retirement Policy in Focus
On the domestic front, the latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed a monthly gain of 0.3% for June—its fastest pace since January. Though inflationary pressure typically supports gold, the market reaction was largely muted. Traders remained more focused on structural shifts in investment access and tariff uncertainty.
President Donald Trump’s proposed executive order allowing U.S. retirement funds to allocate into nontraditional assets like gold, Bitcoin, and private equity represents a potentially transformative change. By broadening the options for 401(k)s and IRAs, the measure could increase long-term demand for gold from retail and institutional investors alike.
Adding another layer of complexity, Donald Trump also floated the possibility of slapping 30% tariffs on imports from the European Union and Mexico. While markets have largely brushed off the headline for now, it reintroduces safe-haven demand as a relevant theme.
Buying Momentum Holds Despite Lack of Fresh Highs
Though GOLD bulls aren’t yet pushing toward new record territory, XAU/USD managed to rebound sharply from a dip near $3,300 last week. That swift bounce underscores strong underlying demand and a willingness among traders to accumulate on dips—even if near-term catalysts are lacking.
If geopolitical risk stays contained and macroeconomic data aligns with further Fed dovishness, gold could find itself in a consolidative phase rather than entering a deeper correction.
Gold Live Chart
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