Weekly Gold Price Prediction: Poised for Breakout on Fed Easing Signals, Tariffs
Gold prices may still be below their April peak, but the safe-haven rush has gained fresh momentum—driven by global trade flare-ups...
Quick overview
- Gold prices are experiencing renewed momentum due to global trade tensions, weaker U.S. economic data, and a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve.
- After a brief dip, gold rebounded, supported by its 20-week simple moving average and weaker-than-expected labor data.
- Recent tariff increases by the U.S. have boosted gold demand, particularly in India and Nepal, where prices are nearing record highs.
- Upcoming U.S. retail sales and inflation data will be crucial in determining gold's future trajectory and potential Fed rate cuts.
Live GOLD Chart
Gold prices may still be below their April peak, but the safe-haven rush has gained fresh momentum—driven by global trade flare-ups, weaker U.S. data, and a shifting Federal Reserve stance.
Market Overview
Since touching its late-April 2025 high of $3,500 per ounce, gold has been consolidating just under record levels, caught between geopolitical turbulence and changing expectations from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Recent changes in Fed membership have tilted sentiment toward a more dovish policy path, with markets now broadly anticipating a September rate cut.
Gold Chart Weekly – The 20 SMA Still Holding As Support
Following last week’s FOMC meeting, where rates were left unchanged, XAU/USD briefly dipped to $3,268 before rebounding sharply, supported by its 20-week simple moving average. The recovery was further propelled by weaker-than-expected U.S. labor data, which some traders questioned for accuracy. While gold buyers have yet to reclaim the $3,450–$3,500 zone, the latest price action suggests growing confidence in a potential breakout.
Tariff Shock Lifts Bullion Demand
On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order raising overall tariffs to 50% and imposing an additional 25% levy on Indian imports as punishment for buying Russian oil. This move pushed global gold prices higher, with India’s bullion market seeing both pure and standard gold approach record territory. In Nepal, gold surged to a historic Rs 200,000 per tola.
Adding to the market’s unease, Trump signaled that fresh U.S. tariffs on pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports will be announced in the coming week—rekindling fears of an escalating global trade war.
Key Data Ahead
This week’s focus will be on U.S. retail sales as well as CPI and PPI inflation figures. Weak inflation prints would likely strengthen gold’s appeal and reinforce expectations of an earlier Fed rate cut, setting the stage for further upside in bullion prices.
Gold Live Chart
- Check out our free forex signals
- Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
- Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies
- Open a FREE Trading Account
