Weekly Dow Forecast: Ukraine Progress, FED Minutes, Powell to Fuel New Highs
Dow Jones Industrial Average once again emerged as the market leader, and it's expected to extend its advance and have another positive week
Quick overview
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average is expected to continue its positive momentum, having outperformed other major U.S. benchmarks this week.
- Investor sentiment has been boosted by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, with a 25 basis point reduction now largely anticipated.
- Geopolitical optimism surrounding potential peace talks in Ukraine has also contributed to a positive market outlook.
- Despite some volatility on Friday due to inflation concerns, the overall market tone remains constructive as investors prepare for future developments.
Live DOW Chart
Dow Jones Industrial Average once again emerged as the market leader, and it’s expected to extend its advance and have another positive week ahead.
Fed Expectations Lift Market Mood
Investor sentiment was buoyed by growing confidence that the Federal Reserve will begin its long-awaited easing cycle in September. A 25 basis point rate cut now appears almost fully priced in after weaker CPI data midweek reassured markets. While hopes for a bolder 50-point reduction have dimmed, the outlook for lower borrowing costs still provided a solid foundation for buying.
This week we get the FOMC meeting minutes which will likely support the idea of rate cuts further on Wednesday, keeping stocks in demand. Then we have the US manufacturing and service PMI, as well as Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole.
Geopolitical Optimism Plays Its Role
Markets also found support from diplomatic developments. Attention turned to President Donald Trump’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, with investors hoping for progress on the Ukraine conflict. Trump’s remarks afterward—suggesting “a very good chance of getting peace in Ukraine”—added to the cautiously optimistic tone across global markets, so that’s another positive for the week ahead.
Volatility Returns in Friday’s Session
By Friday, however, the momentum slowed as fresh inflation concerns resurfaced after a sharp rise in import costs. Profit-taking also set in, dragging the Dow from an intraday peak of 45,203.52 back toward 44,946.18 at the close—still above water but below its record-setting highs from earlier in the week.
Dow Futures Chart Weekly – The Breakout Has Happened
Standout Performer: UnitedHealth Group
UnitedHealth Group stole the spotlight after Berkshire Hathaway revealed a new stake in the insurer, propelling the stock up 12% and lifting it back over the $300 mark. The surge provided strong intraday support for the Dow, helping it notch another winning session despite late-day headwinds.
Weekly Market Recap
All three major U.S. benchmarks managed to end the week in positive territory, but the Dow clearly outperformed. The index advanced 761.76 points, or 1.72%, to close at 44,946.18—cementing its place as the strongest performer of the week.
Conclusion: Despite Friday’s choppy close, Wall Street’s broader tone remains constructive. The combination of anticipated Fed easing, resilient blue-chip demand, and cautious geopolitical optimism helped lift sentiment. With the Dow leading the charge, investors appear to be positioning for a potentially softer policy stance ahead and keeping a close eye on global developments that could influence the next leg higher.
Dow Jones Live Chart
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