Weekly Gold Price Prediction: Uptrend Intact, With Fed Easing and Trade Turmoil in Focus
Gold has been consolidating just below record levels, sustained by a mix of Federal Reserve dovishness, global trade frictions, and...
Quick overview
- Gold is consolidating below record levels due to dovish Federal Reserve policies, global trade tensions, and strong investor demand for safety.
- After reaching a peak of $3,500 per ounce in April 2025, gold has shown resilience, supported by a favorable technical landscape and expectations of a rate cut.
- Geopolitical factors, including renewed trade disputes and tariff increases, have further fueled gold's rally, although some risk premiums have eased recently.
- Looking ahead, key events such as the FOMC minutes and Fed Chair Powell's remarks are expected to influence gold's momentum and could lead to new highs.
Live GOLD Chart
Gold has been consolidating just below record levels, sustained by a mix of Federal Reserve dovishness, global trade frictions, and investor demand for safety in an increasingly unstable world economy.
Fed Policy and Market Expectations
After touching a record high of $3,500 per ounce in late April 2025, gold has settled into a consolidation phase, stabilizing below peak levels but still showing strong momentum. Investors have increasingly priced in a September rate cut and another move before year-end, spurred by recent changes within the Fed’s ranks that have shifted policy sentiment toward easing.
Gold Chart Weekly – The 20 SMA Continues to Keep the Uptrend On
Following the FOMC meeting last week, where rates were left unchanged, XAU/USD briefly slipped to $3,268. Yet the metal quickly rebounded as its 20-week simple moving average provided support. Softer U.S. CPI figures further boosted the case for monetary easing, weakening the dollar and underpinning gold’s resilience.
Inflation, Labor Data, and Technical Landscape
The recovery gained further traction when U.S. labor data came in weaker than expected, though some traders questioned its accuracy. While gold did post modest losses into the weekend, the overall picture remains constructive. Chart patterns suggest an upward bias, with many traders positioning for a potential breakout above the April highs.
The interplay between weaker inflation, uncertain employment trends, and policy expectations continues to reinforce gold’s safe-haven appeal.
Trade Tensions and Geopolitical Premiums
On the geopolitical side, gold’s rally has also been fueled by renewed trade disputes. Earlier this month, President Trump raised tariffs to 50% on a broad range of imports and introduced an additional 25% duty on goods from India, citing retaliation for purchases of Russian oil. The move sent global bullion prices higher, with both pure and standard gold nearing record levels on the Indian market.
However, the risk premium eased somewhat after the weekend’s Trump–Putin meeting, which produced a more favorable outcome than markets had feared.
Key Events Ahead
Markets are now looking toward the FOMC minutes due on August 20, which could reinforce expectations of a September cut, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium on August 22, both of which are likely to sway gold and U.S. dollar momentum.
Longer-Term Dynamics
Beyond short-term catalysts, gold’s structural outlook remains bullish. Analysts point to rising production costs, constrained mine supply, and the industry’s preference for organic growth and portfolio reshuffling over large-scale mergers as factors limiting output growth.
UBS also highlights gold’s expanding investor base and enduring role as a strategic hedge against global instability, trade disruptions, and heightened macroeconomic risks. In a world of shifting alliances and growing debt burdens, gold’s role as a long-term store of value appears more relevant than ever.
Conclusion: While gold remains just shy of its April highs, the combination of dovish Fed signals, tariff-driven trade tensions, and a structurally supportive supply outlook suggests that the metal’s bullish trajectory is intact. With pivotal Fed communications and Jackson Hole ahead, gold could soon test new highs, reaffirming its place as the world’s premier safe-haven asset.
Gold Live Chart
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