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Forex Signals Brief August 22: Powell’s Final Jackson Hole Speech as Wall Street Slips
U.S. stocks ended the session weaker ahead of a pivotal moment at Jackson Hole, where Fed Chair Powell will deliver his farewell address.
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Last updated: Thursday, August 21, 2025
Quick overview
- U.S. stocks closed lower ahead of Fed Chair Powell's farewell address at the Jackson Hole Symposium, with major indices experiencing losses.
- Walmart's earnings fell short of expectations despite higher-than-expected revenues, raising concerns about broader retail sales growth.
- Powell's upcoming remarks are anticipated to focus on the Fed's dual mandate and set the tone for its future direction, without major policy changes expected.
- In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin faced a correction after reaching record highs, while Ethereum showed resilience with a rebound from recent pullbacks.
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MARKETS TREND
U.S. stocks ended the session weaker ahead of a pivotal moment at Jackson Hole, where Fed Chair Powell will deliver his farewell address.
Wall Street Retreats into Powell’s Farewell
Major U.S. indices closed lower by around 0.40% on Thursday as traders looked ahead to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The S&P 500 logged its fifth straight day of losses, while the NASDAQ fell for the fourth time in five sessions, managing only a modest single-day gain earlier in the week. The Dow also edged lower, with the pullback reflecting investor caution as markets weigh how Powell will frame his legacy and the Fed’s future path.
Existing Home Sales Bounce Back
U.S. existing home sales rose in July to an annual pace of 4.01 million, beating expectations of 3.92 million. Sales climbed 2.0% month-on-month after June’s 2.7% decline. Inventory slipped slightly to 4.6 months’ supply, though still up 15.7% year-over-year. The median home price reached $422,400, marking the 25th straight annual increase.
- Single-family homes: Sales +2.0% m/m, median price $428,500 (+0.3% y/y)
- Condo/co-ops: Sales +2.8% m/m, median price $362,600 (−1.2% y/y)
By region, the Northeast led with +8.7%, while the Midwest slipped (−1.1%), and the South and West posted modest gains. Homes stayed on the market a median of 28 days, with first-time buyers down to 28%. Cash purchases (31%) and investor activity (20%) rose, reflecting tighter credit conditions.
PMI Surveys Point to Stronger Growth
The S&P Global PMI report came in well above expectations. Manufacturing hit 53.3 (vs 49.5 expected), services reached 55.4 (vs 54.2), and the composite index stood at 55.4, the highest in eight months.
The survey highlighted solid demand, growing backlogs, and strong hiring trends, suggesting the economy is running at roughly a 2.5% annualized pace in Q3, well ahead of the 1.3% average seen in the first half of the year.
Key Market Events for Today
Retail Sector and Walmart in Spotlight
Walmart, the country’s largest retailer, posted earnings per share of $0.68—well below consensus forecasts of $0.74. However, revenues surprised to the upside at $177.4 billion, surpassing estimates of $176.2 billion. Broader U.S. retail data remains in focus, with July headline sales expected to rise +0.5% month-on-month, down slightly from June’s +0.6% pace. Excluding autos, retail sales are projected to slow to +0.2%. Analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics warned that June’s strength was flattered by an unexpected surge in car purchases, and forecast that real consumer spending will stall into Q3, with household demand growing at less than 1%.
Jackson Hole: Powell’s Legacy and the Fed’s Next Chapter
This year’s Jackson Hole Symposium carries particular weight as it marks Powell’s final appearance as Fed chair. While markets do not expect major policy shifts, Powell is likely to emphasize the Fed’s balanced dual mandate of employment and a symmetric 2% inflation target—principles already embedded in its framework review. His remarks are expected to set the intellectual tone for the Fed’s next chapter, rather than deliver immediate policy adjustments. Traders will listen closely for reflections on inflation management, labor market resilience, and the Fed’s evolving role in stabilizing long-term growth.
Last week, markets were quite volatile once, with gold retreating and then bouncing to finish the week close to $4,000 but yesterday it retreated again. EUR/USD continued the upward move toward 1.17, while main indices closed higher. The moves weren’t too big though, and we opened 35 trading signals in total, finishing the week with 23 winning signals and 12 losing ones.
Gold Rebounds Off the 100 Daily SMA
In commodities, gold briefly slipped below $3,268/oz after the Fed’s recent decision to leave rates unchanged, but the downside was limited. Prices rebounded from the 100-day simple moving average, supported by steady labor market data and persistent safe-haven demand. Technical signals suggest the $3,450–$3,500/oz range remains a decisive breakout zone, where sustained momentum could fuel another leg higher for the metal.
Yen Recovery from ¥150 Shock
In FX trading, the dollar briefly climbed above ¥150 earlier in the week, driven by yield differentials and Japanese capital outflows. However, profit-taking combined with weak U.S. jobs data strengthened the yen, pulling USD/JPY four yen off its highs. The move highlighted ongoing volatility in currency markets, with traders balancing Fed policy expectations against Japan’s efforts to curb yen weakness.
USD/JPY – Weekly Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Returns to $112K Support Again
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency space has remained highly active through the summer months. Bitcoin (BTC) surged to fresh record highs above $123,000 in July and $124,000 in August, buoyed by institutional inflows and technical momentum. Optimism had suggested BTC might challenge the $150,000 mark, but enthusiasm cooled sharply after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the U.S. would not expand its Bitcoin reserves. Combined with hotter-than-expected inflation data, the news sparked a sharp correction, pulling BTC down to $113,000 over the weekend before rebounding above $116,000 yesterday.
BTC/USD – Weekly chart
Ethereum Retreats From Resistance
Ethereum (ETH) has also staged a powerful rally, climbing toward $4,800, its highest level since 2021 and nearing its all-time high of $4,860. Although ETH faced a pullback last week, buyers stepped in at the 20-day simple moving average, fueling a rebound. The rally has been driven by both retail enthusiasm and fresh institutional participation,
with bullish technical patterns suggesting further upside potential.
ETH/USD – Daily Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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