Exxaro Breaks Resistance on Strong Earnings – JSE: EXX Share Price Shifts 3-Year Slump
Exxaro Resources is making a turnaround after months of share price decline, driven by strong H1 earnings and strategic acquisitions.
Quick overview
- Exxaro Resources is showing signs of recovery after a three-year decline in share price, boosted by strong H1 earnings and strategic acquisitions.
- The company reported a 13% increase in headline earnings and declared its 45th consecutive dividend, reflecting financial stability.
- Exxaro's recent acquisition of manganese assets is expected to enhance its position in the ferrous market, further driving investor confidence.
- Despite challenges from declining coal and iron ore prices, Exxaro's diversified portfolio and operational resilience provide a foundation for potential growth.
Exxaro Resources is making a turnaround after months of share price decline, driven by strong H1 earnings and strategic acquisitions.
Three-Year Struggle Meets Potential Turning Point
Exxaro Resources (JSE: EXX) has battled a three-year slump in its share price, sliding from a peak of nearly R23 per share in 2022 to R13.40 in early April 2025—a drop of roughly 40%. The stock repeatedly hit lower highs during this period, reflecting persistent investor caution amid domestic and global challenges.
EXXJ Chart Monthly – Rebounding off the 200 SMA
Technical Support Sparks Recovery
The share found support at key moving averages on the monthly chart, reminiscent of the patterns seen in 2020. This technical floor contributed to a rebound of around 8% in July, followed by a further 11% gain in August, including an 8% surge immediately after the release of H1 earnings, which were published pre-market.
EXXJ Chart Weekly – Facing the 200 SMA As Resistance
Since its April low, EXX has climbed nearly 33%, suggesting that a sustained uptrend may take hold once resistance levels are breached. On the monthly chart, the 50 SMA (yellow) represents the key resistance, while on the weekly chart, the 200 SMA (purple) capped the price at R185, the level reached post-earnings.
H1 2025 Earnings Show Strength
Exxaro reported headline earnings up 13%, underpinned by steady operational performance and a robust balance sheet. Revenue growth and net cash increases further reinforced the company’s financial stability. The mining group also declared its 45th consecutive dividend of R8.43 per share for the six months ending June 30, marking a 6% increase from the previous period.
Exxaro H1 Performance Highlights
- Declared 45th consecutive dividend of R8.43 per share, a 6% increase from last year.
- Headline earnings per share rose 13% to R17.24.
- Revenue increased 8% to R20.6bn.
- Net cash grew 27% YoY to R12.4bn.
- EBITDA rose 10% to R5.6bn, reflecting steady operational performance.
Strategic Manganese Acquisition
- On May 3, 2025, Exxaro announced agreements to acquire manganese assets from Ntsimbintle Holdings and OMH (Mauritius) Corporation.
- Acquisition price estimated between R9bn and R14.64bn.
- Regulatory approvals and conditions remain pending; completion is targeted for early 2026.
Production and Operations Update
- Group production across coal, energy, and ferrous markets increased 1%.
- Export sales grew 3%.
- Wind energy generation reached 337 GWh, broadly in line with seasonality (vs. 339 GWh in H1 2024).
Market Trends and Pricing Pressures
- Coal and iron ore prices declined since H2 2024.
- Seaborne thermal coal prices dropped due to higher European stockpiles and weather effects.
- Australian coal fell to a four-year low of $90/t.
- Iron ore prices weakened amid low Chinese construction activity and market volatility.
Strategic Expansion in the Ferrous Sector
Investor optimism was further fueled by Exxaro’s ongoing manganese acquisitions, which are expected to position the company for growth in the ferrous market. The combination of dividend consistency, strong H1 results, and strategic asset expansion has driven renewed confidence among shareholders.
Market Pressures and Portfolio Resilience
Although coal and iron ore prices have softened amid weaker global demand and volatile market conditions, Exxaro’s diversified portfolio and balanced energy and ferrous exposure provide resilience. Wind energy generation also remained steady, highlighting the company’s ability to maintain stable operations across multiple sectors.
Conclusion: After months of decline, Exxaro Resources appears to be regaining momentum. With technical support triggering a significant rebound, solid H1 earnings, and strategic acquisitions in the manganese sector, the company is positioned for a potential long-term uptrend. While commodity price volatility remains a factor, Exxaro’s operational strength and portfolio diversity offer investors a reason for cautious optimism.
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