Bitwise Projects Bitcoin at $1.3M by 2035, Market Cap Near $28 Trillion
Bitwise has made a big call: Bitcoin could hit $1.3 million by 2035. The forecast is their base case and is outlined...
Quick overview
- Bitwise predicts Bitcoin could reach $1.3 million by 2035, representing a 28.3% annualized return from its current price of $112,000.
- The forecast suggests Bitcoin's market cap could exceed $28 trillion, surpassing the global gold market.
- Key growth drivers include institutional adoption, inflation hedging, and limited supply due to mining constraints.
- Risks such as regulatory changes and macroeconomic disruptions could impact this trajectory, but the overall trend remains positive.
Bitwise has made a big call: Bitcoin could hit $1.3 million by 2035. The forecast is their base case and is outlined in their August capital markets assumptions report. With over $15 billion under management, that’s a 28.3% annualized return from today’s $112,000 price.
If true, Bitcoin’s market cap would be nearly $28 trillion – more than twice the size of the global gold market. They also outline a bull case of $3 million and a bear case of $88,000. While ambitious, the report shows how institutions are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a structural asset rather than a trade.
Three Forces Driving Bitcoin Growth
Bitwise identifies three key forces driving Bitcoin’s long term trajectory:
Bitwise: $1.3M #Bitcoin by 2035
Bitwise dropped a monster forecast: Bitcoin hitting $1.3 million by 2035. They’re calling for a 28% compound annual growth rate, fueled by institutional demand, scarce supply, and macro tailwinds.#BTC outpaces stocks, bonds, and gold combined.— Lucien 🚀 (@japses) August 29, 2025
- Institutional Adoption – Since US spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in early 2024, institutional inflows have surged. Today institutions account for over 75% of trading volume. Corporate treasuries, pensions and sovereign wealth funds are slowly integrating Bitcoin into the traditional financial system.
- Inflation Hedging – Rising US debt and weakening fiat currencies have made hard assets more attractive. For context, $10,000 held in US dollars since 2015 has lost nearly 40% of its purchasing power. Bitcoin’s portability and finite supply makes it a digital parallel to gold.
- Scarcity Through Supply Limits – With less than 1.1 million coins left to mine and halving events reducing supply to about 450 BTC per day, supply is getting tighter. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan called Bitcoin’s inelastic supply “the single most important factor” behind their outlook.
Risks That Could Change the Path
Bitwise acknowledges that the path to $1.3 million isn’t risk free. Regulatory changes are the biggest risk, especially changes in custody, taxation or ETF access.
Other risks include macroeconomic disruptions, liquidity crises or competition from emerging technologies. They expect 30-60% drawdowns despite declining volatility.
But Bitwise says the overall trend is intact. Bitcoin is moving from the periphery of speculation into the core of global portfolios. If the projections are right, Bitcoin won’t just rival gold but also compete with US Treasuries as a central store of value in the next decade.
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