WTI at $65.7: Sanctions, 17% Refinery Hit, OPEC+ Meeting Ahead
WTI crude futures held around $65.7 on Wednesday, up 1.1% from the previous day. The tone is firm as supply tightens and demand...
Quick overview
- WTI crude futures are up 1.1% at around $65.7, supported by tightening supply and mixed demand signals.
- New US sanctions target shipping linked to Iranian oil, while Ukrainian drone strikes have disrupted 17% of Russia's refining capacity.
- US crude inventories decreased by 1 million barrels last week, providing a slight boost to prices despite soft manufacturing data.
- Traders are advised to buy the dip, with key support levels identified and a focus on maintaining the trend of higher lows.
WTI crude futures held around $65.7 on Wednesday, up 1.1% from the previous day. The tone is firm as supply tightens and demand headlines are mixed. Fresh US sanctions hit shipping companies and vessels tied to an Iraqi-Kittitian businessman accused of moving Iranian oil under an Iraqi label.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian drones knocked out facilities representing about 17% of Russia’s refining capacity and Kyiv says more strikes are coming. That’s supply risk the market can’t ignore.
US inventory data provided a small tailwind. Industry figures showed a 1 million barrel draw last week—less than the 1.7 million decline expected, but a decline nonetheless. Put together, the backdrop argues for higher prices even as macro data is soft.
Quick hits
- New US sanctions on flows linked to disguised Iranian oil
- Ukraine strikes knock out ~17% of Russia’s refining capacity
- US crude stocks down ~1 million barrels on the week
- Soft US manufacturing and tariff overhang weigh on demand
- Sept 7 OPEC+ meeting in focus; no near-term changes expected
Oil Prices Remain Steady After Reaching One-Month High Amid Geopolitical Tensions 🌍🛢️, As Traders Monitor US Sanctions on Russia and Ukrainian Attacks on Energy Assets, While Trump Rules Out Tariff Cuts for India. Focus Turns to OPEC+ Meeting Expectations, With WTI Near $66 and…
— RedboxGlobal (@RedboxWire) September 2, 2025
What Could Cap the Rally
Demand hasn’t fully joined the party. US manufacturing contracted for the sixth straight month and trade frictions are still a headwind. A stronger dollar on risk-off days can also sap momentum by making oil more expensive for non-US buyers. These cross-currents argue for a measured approach: respect the uptrend, but demand confirmation at support.
WTI Price Outlook and Setup
Technically, WTI is consolidating around $65.40 after a strong move that cleared the 200-period SMA at $64.71 and the 50-period SMA at $64.56. Price has made a series of higher lows along an ascending trendline from mid-August and the breakout above $65.00 printed a strong-bodied candle that looks like a bullish engulfing—buyers took control.
Momentum is good but cooling. The RSI has backed off from overbought to the high-50s and the MACD is flat. Candles at $65.98 have upper wicks, a sign of supply at resistance and the risk of a retest of the trendline.Levels are simple.
Support is at $64.93 and $64.56; hold those and bulls will go for $65.98 and then $66.74 and $67.55 if momentum returns. A daily close below $64.21 would break the higher-low structure and put $63.65 back in play.
Trade idea, in a nutshell: buy the dip. If price pulls back to $64.90-$64.60, look for a higher-low bounce or a bullish engulfing candle to confirm entry. Place a stop just below $64.20 to get out if the structure fails. First target $65.98; if that breaks with volume, trail stops and go for $66.74. As long as the trendline of higher lows holds, the trade is good; break it and the trade is wrong—exit and re-evaluate.
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