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Forex Signals Sept 15: Will the FED Sink Stock Markets and Gold or Fuel the Rally Further?
Investors face one of the busiest weeks of September as central bank announcements, particularly the FED, are set to shape global market...
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Last updated: Monday, September 15, 2025
Quick overview
- Investors are preparing for a busy week with significant central bank announcements, particularly from the Federal Reserve, which could influence global market sentiment.
- Recent labor market data, including a rise in unemployment claims, has shifted focus from inflation concerns, leading traders to anticipate potential rate cuts from the Fed.
- The U.S. dollar weakened and stock markets rallied to new highs as expectations of a dovish monetary policy grew, despite ongoing inflation worries.
- Key economic reports and central bank decisions this week will likely increase market volatility, with important data releases from China, the UK, and the Eurozone.
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MARKETS TREND
Investors face one of the busiest weeks of September as central bank announcements, particularly the FED, are set to shape global market sentiment.
Inflation Data Meets Labor Market Weakness
Last week began with hotter-than-expected CPI inflation, initially expected to dominate market attention. However, the spotlight quickly shifted from prices to the labor market, as unemployment claims climbed to their highest level since 2021. Texas, in particular, reported an unexpected surge in claims. Despite this softening labor signal, equity markets remained resilient, choosing to focus on the dovish policy implications.
Traders Bet on Fed Easing
The rise in jobless claims reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could pivot sooner rather than later. Futures markets are now fully pricing in nearly three quarter-point rate cuts this year. This dovish tilt overshadowed inflation concerns and gave investors confidence that monetary policy will turn more supportive in the coming months.
Dollar Weakens, Yields Drop, Stocks Rally
The shift in expectations sent the U.S. dollar lower, while 10-year Treasury yields briefly fell below the 4% threshold for the first time since Liberation Day. This combination of a softer dollar and falling yields fueled appetite for risk assets. U.S. equities carried their bullish momentum into fresh territory, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all notching new record highs by the week’s close.
Key Market Events to Watch This Week
This week’s calendar blends high-impact economic reports with pivotal central bank decisions, ensuring heightened volatility across global markets. With the Fed, BoE, BoJ, and others all in play, the outcomes will shape expectations for growth, inflation, and monetary policy into year-end.
Monday – China Activity Data (Aug)
- Traders will be watching Chinese retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment for clues on the strength of the recovery, particularly as Beijing steps up support measures.
Tuesday – UK Jobs Report (Jul), EZ Industrial Production (Jul), German ZEW Survey (Sep), US Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug), Canadian CPI (Aug)
- A heavy day of releases with UK labor data expected to highlight wage pressures, while the German ZEW survey will test investor confidence. In the U.S., retail sales and industrial output will provide fresh insight into consumer strength. Canadian inflation will be pivotal ahead of the BoC’s policy stance.
Wednesday – FOMC, BoC, BCB Announcements; UK CPI (Aug); EZ CPI Final (Aug)
- The centerpiece of the week. Markets largely expect a 25 bps cut from the Fed, but guidance on the path ahead will drive moves in FX, bonds, and equities. The BoC and Brazil’s central bank (BCB) will also deliver decisions. Inflation prints from the UK and Eurozone add to the data-heavy day.
Thursday – New Zealand GDP (Q2), Bank of England Announcement
- The BoE’s decision could set the tone for GBP, with investors split on the timing of its next move. Meanwhile, New Zealand’s growth data will gauge how the economy is handling higher rates.
Friday – Bank of Japan Announcement, Japanese CPI (Aug)
- The week closes with Japan, where speculation remains intense over whether the BoJ will move away from its ultra-loose policy. Inflation data will provide further context to its decision.
Last week, markets were quite volatile again, with gold soaring to $3,6065. EUR/USD continued the upward move toward 1.17.80, while main indices closed higher again. The moves weren’t too big though, and we opened 35 trading signals in total, finishing the week with 23 winning signals and 12 losing ones.
Gold Holds Near the Highs
Gold continues to attract strong safe-haven flows although we saw a slight pullback yesterday. Prices surged above $3,674 early yesterday, hitting a new record high, so buyers are in total control, while China has resumed buying bullion. Technical charts now highlight the $3,700 level as the next major resistance, which will be broken soon as the upside accelerates, however an upside-down daily candlestick is a bearish signal, which could indicate a deeper pullback after such a rally.
USD/JPY Continues Trading in the Range
Foreign exchange markets saw sharp swings. Early in the week, U.S. yield differentials and Japanese capital outflows pushed the dollar above ¥150, but disappointing U.S. jobs data triggered profit-taking, causing the USD/JPY to slide by four yen from its peak. The move underscored persistent volatility as traders weighed Japan’s intervention risks against evolving Fed expectations.
USD/JPY – Weekly Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Starts Rebound Off the 20 SMA
Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down to $113,000 before recovering above $116,000 last week, however sellers returned and sent BTC below $110,000, however we saw a rebound off the 20 weekly SMA (gray) yesterday.
BTC/USD – Weekly chart
Ethereum Climbs Above $4,500
Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. However buying resumed and on Sunday ETH/USD printed another record at $4,941. However we saw a retreat to $,000 lows over the weekend, but yesterday buyers returned.
ETH/USD – Daily Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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