October South Africa Fuel Prices: Diesel Could Ease Lower, Petrol Faces Modest Hike Despite Rand Strength
Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) suggests that South African fuel prices in October will present a mixed picture, with...
Quick overview
- South African petrol prices are expected to rise slightly in October, with increases projected at 8 to 16 cents per litre.
- In contrast, diesel and illuminating paraffin prices may decrease by 9 to 14 cents per litre, providing some relief for consumers.
- The fuel pricing is influenced by global oil prices and the rand/dollar exchange rate, with the rand recently strengthening.
- These mid-month projections are not final and may change before the official adjustments are confirmed.
Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) suggests that South African fuel prices in October will present a mixed picture, with petrol likely to rise slightly while diesel and paraffin could ease lower.
Petrol Under Pressure
The CEF’s mid-month snapshot indicates that petrol has underecovered by 8 to 16 cents per litre, meaning pump prices are lagging behind the actual cost. This under-recovery suggests that motorists may face a modest increase in petrol prices when October adjustments are finalized.
Diesel and Paraffin Outlook
In contrast, diesel and illuminating paraffin are showing signs of over-recovery, with estimates ranging between 9 and 13 cents per litre. This trend points toward a potential slight price decrease or stability, providing some relief for consumers and businesses dependent on these fuels.
Role of Rand and Oil Prices
Fuel pricing remains highly sensitive to global oil price movements and the rand/dollar exchange rate. Recently, the rand has strengthened, with USD/ZAR slipping below R17.50, contributing to over-recovery for certain fuels. However, while price hikes tend to filter through immediately, the positive impacts of stronger currency or lower oil costs usually take longer to reach the consumer.
Mid-Month Fuel Price Projections – South Africa
Based on the latest data, motorists and households can expect the following adjustments in fuel prices at mid-month:
- Petrol 93 → Projected increase of 8 cents per litre
- Petrol 95 → Projected increase of 16 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale) → Projected decrease of 10 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale) → Projected decrease of 9 cents per litre
- Illuminating paraffin → Projected decrease of 14 cents per litre
Caution on Final Numbers
It’s important to note that the CEF’s mid-month data is not final. Daily snapshot reports do not cover all products—such as LP Gas—and are subject to change before the end-of-month review. The Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources will only confirm October’s final adjustments a few days before implementation.
Conclusion: The early data suggests that October will bring slight petrol increases alongside potential small diesel and paraffin decreases, reflecting the ongoing tug-of-war between international oil prices and rand fluctuations. While not final, these figures give South Africans a clear sense of the direction fuel costs are taking into next month.
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