Gold Rally Implies $644K Bitcoin Valuation, VanEck Analyst Says
Bitcoin could hit $644,000 if it follows gold's recent run, according to VanEck's digital asset research team.
Quick overview
- VanEck's research suggests Bitcoin could reach $644,000 by 2028 if it captures half of gold's market cap.
- Gold has recently set a record high of $4,000 per ounce, significantly outperforming Bitcoin this year.
- Younger investors, particularly in emerging markets, are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a preferred store of value over gold.
- Some market analysts remain skeptical about Bitcoin's ability to match gold's performance, with Bitcoin currently 15% below its previous peak when measured in gold ounces.
Bitcoin could hit $644,000 if it follows gold’s recent run, according to VanEck’s digital asset research team. Gold futures just broke $4,000 per ounce for the first time, setting a new record.
Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, has long maintained that Bitcoin should reach half of gold’s total market cap. With gold’s latest move higher, that puts Bitcoin at $644,000 per coin by the next halving in 2028. “We’ve been saying Bitcoin should reach half of gold’s market cap after the next halving,” Sigel said Monday.
The firm’s thesis rests on Bitcoin taking market share from gold’s role as a store of value. VanEck estimates roughly half of gold’s current valuation comes from investors holding it to preserve wealth, separate from its use in jewelry or industry.
VanEck’s research shows younger investors are turning to Bitcoin for this purpose. This is happening more in emerging markets, where people have less trust in their banks. Surveys conducted by the firm indicate this demographic prefers Bitcoin over gold when looking to protect their savings.
This year, gold has outperformed Bitcoin by a wide margin. The precious metal climbed 50% as investors responded to dollar weakness, political tensions, and tariff concerns. Bitcoin hit a new all-time high above $126,000 this week but hasn’t matched gold’s percentage gains.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt believes gold could climb further. “Gold may go substantially higher before any meaningful correction,” he said Monday, though he couldn’t predict how much. He warned against buying into the rally at current price levels, suggesting those entering now may face losses later.
Some market observers remain skeptical of Bitcoin’s performance relative to gold. When measured in ounces of gold rather than dollars, Bitcoin sits about 15% below its prior peak. The cryptocurrency would need to reach $148,000 to match that mark.
Meanwhile, Joe Consorti, head of growth at Bitcoin custodian Theya, offered a different calculation. He said Bitcoin’s “fair value floor” now stands at $1.34 million based on gold’s rise, though he didn’t detail the methodology behind that figure.
Institutional investors are watching both assets as they weigh different approaches to their portfolios.
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