U.S. Companies are Reporting Their Strongest Earnings in Four Years

Quick overview

S&P 500 companies are delivering their strongest performance in more than four years, with 85% surpassing third-quarter profit estimates.

Solid earnings—fueled in part by the ongoing boom in artificial intelligence investment—are offering investors relief amid a backdrop of economic and trade uncertainty.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence data, the current reporting season is shaping up to be the strongest for U.S. companies since 2021. While it’s still early—fewer than one-fifth of the index’s market capitalization has reported so far—the numbers reinforce the view that corporate profits remain resilient despite slowing growth and persistent geopolitical tensions.

Unlike in previous quarters, this wave of positive surprises has come even after analysts raised their forecasts ahead of the reporting season. Strong results, combined with continued AI-driven capital spending, are helping to offset the drag from new tariffs and the lingering risk of a potential U.S. government shutdown.

Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to grow 12% year over year, outpacing the broader market consensus of a 7.7% gain.

Main Earnings Reports

Upside surprises are emerging across sectors. In banking, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley posted stronger-than-expected results, while General Motors raised its annual outlook thanks to robust pickup sales and some tariff relief. In consumer staples, Coca-Cola also topped estimates, supported by steady demand despite higher prices.

The upbeat earnings are providing an anchor of confidence at a time when investors have fewer macroeconomic data points to rely on, given the partial government shutdown. Although it’s still too early to draw firm conclusions, two clear trends stand out: large companies remain confident in their ability to navigate regulatory uncertainty and continue to invest aggressively in growth and capital spending.

So far this year, the S&P 500 has gained 15%, driven largely by the artificial intelligence boom. However, momentum has cooled in October as trade tensions and slower earnings revisions keep investors cautious in the short term.

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Ignacio Teson

Economist and Financial Analyst

Ignacio Teson is an Economist and Financial Analyst. He has more than 7 years of experience in emerging markets. He worked as an analyst and market operator at brokerage firms in Argentina and Spain.

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