Crypto Market Braces for $16B Options Expiry as 10x Research Shorts ETH
The crypto market got slammed this week with a big drop in value for BTC, ETH, and the big-name altcoins. That wiped out almost $200...
Quick overview
- The crypto market experienced a significant downturn this week, with nearly $200 billion lost in total market valuation due to a drop in BTC, ETH, and major altcoins.
- A massive $16 billion Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry is driving short-term market volatility, leading to increased trading activity on major exchanges.
- Ethereum faces heightened pressure with a bearish put-call ratio and growing defensive positioning among traders amid waning institutional confidence.
- Analysts suggest Bitcoin may have potential upside, while Ethereum's market structure appears fragile, influenced more by capital flows than macro liquidity.
The crypto market got slammed this week with a big drop in value for BTC, ETH, and the big-name altcoins. That wiped out almost $200 billion from the total market valuation – a staggering loss. And the impact wasn’t just on prices : over $1.2 billion in long positions got wiped out on the big exchanges as investors panicked out of positions .
The real reason behind the slide is the massive $16 billion Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry in October – that’s the major driver of things over the short-term. Trading activity has gone into overdrive on the CME and Deribit exchanges , with institutional investors scrambling to rebalance their portfolios at a time when cash is tight and risk attitudes are changing.
Bitcoin Options Snapshot
- 123,000 BTC options, worth $13.52 billion, are expiring today.
- Put-call ratio: 0.70, with max pain at $114,000, suggesting a mild bullish bias.
- Over the past 24 hours, the put/call ratio rose to 1.35, signaling increased downside hedging.
Despite short-term caution, traders expect a potential rebound if Bitcoin holds the $112,000 support, as options data show a concentration of calls expiring in the money.
1/10 Yo, crypto fam, it's Halloween 2025, but the real spook is this massive $16B BTC & ETH options expiry dropping TODAY. Market's on edge, BTC pinned around $110k, and we're staring at potential October losses for the first time since 2018. Let's break it down without the BS.
— qody (@DeQody) October 31, 2025
Ethereum Faces Heavier Pressure
Ethereum’s setup appears more fragile. Around 642,000 ETH options, valued at $2.5 billion, are also expiring today. The put-call ratio at 0.68 has turned bearish, with put volume nearly doubling to 209,000 contracts within 24 hours.
Key derivatives data highlight growing defensive positioning:
- Max pain point: $4,100, above the current $3,836 spot level.
- Open interest: concentrated at the $4,000 and $3,600 strikes.
- Rising put exposure indicates traders hedging for November weakness.
The bearish tone reflects waning institutional confidence in Ethereum amid ongoing ETF outflows and liquidity constraints.
Fed Policy and Macro Backdrop
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) held steady near 99.50 during Friday’s Asian session despite hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed’s 10–2 vote to cut rates by 25 bps to a 3.75%–4.00% range underscored internal division, with Governor Stephen Miran favoring a deeper cut and Jeffrey Schmid preferring no change.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now see a 71% probability of another rate cut in December, up from 66% a day earlier. However, Powell noted the ongoing U.S. government shutdown complicates data assessment, delaying further policy adjustments.
Trade optimism offered a mild offset after Trump and Xi’s meeting, where the U.S. agreed to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods to 47% from 57%. At the same time, China pledged to limit fentanyl exports and expand U.S. agricultural purchases.
Analyst Outlook: Bitcoin Resilient, Ethereum at Risk
According to 10x Research, Bitcoin’s volatility spike signals potential upside catalysts ahead, while Ethereum’s market structure remains fragile. Analyst Markus Thielen recommends short exposure on ETH, noting the fading appeal of its “digital treasury” narrative and weakening institutional support.
He adds that both Bitcoin and Ethereum are now driven less by macro liquidity and more by actual capital flows, making derivatives positioning and institutional sentiment the dominant forces shaping November’s crypto landscape.
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