AUD/USD Breaks $0.6504 With Bullish Momentum After RBA Dip and U.S. Data Wave

The AUD/USD found its footing on Thursday, rebounding above $0.6504 after slipping earlier in the week on dovish RBA minutes and weak...

Written by: Arslan Butt • Thursday, June 5, 2025 • 1 min read

• Last updated: Thursday, June 5, 2025

Quick overview

The AUD/USD rebounded above $0.6504 after earlier declines due to dovish RBA minutes and weak local data.
Australia's Q1 GDP growth was lower than expected at 0.2%, contributing to market pressure alongside a larger trade deficit.
Technically, the AUD/USD has broken out of a descending wedge and is now trading at $0.6512, with bullish momentum indicators.
Traders are awaiting US economic data and Fed commentary, with key resistance levels and potential consolidation in focus.

The AUD/USD found its footing on Thursday, rebounding above $0.6504 after slipping earlier in the week on dovish RBA minutes and weak local data. It had fallen as low as $0.6450 after the RBA signalled a 50-basis-point rate cut was on the table, but regained ground as focus shifted to a busy US economic calendar.

Australia’s Q1 GDP growth missed at 0.2% vs 0.4% expected and a deeper than expected trade deficit of A$5.41B (vs A$5.96B expected) put pressure on the market. Gross operating profits also contracted, as expected.

But as traders digested a stronger than expected JOLTS job openings number and Thursday’s US unemployment claims (236K vs 240K expected), the dollar lost momentum and gave the AUD/USD room to recover.

Technical Setup Turns Bullish Above $0.6504

Technically, the AUD/USD has broken out of a descending wedge, with a clean close above $0.6504 and prior highs. It has been making higher lows since May 30 and is now trading at $0.6512. The 50 period EMA at $0.6475 is now acting as support along with the trendline.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview — AUD/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Momentum indicators are bullish: the MACD has crossed up and the bullish candle is confirming follow through. Immediate resistance is at $0.6525, $0.6537 and $0.6553.

Outlook Hinges on US Jobs and Fed Commentary

Traders now wait for direction from today’s US data dump, including revised nonfarm productivity (-0.8% expected), trade balance (-$67.6B vs -$140.5B prior) and multiple Fed speeches. With Friday’s NFP looming, the AUD/USD may consolidate near key resistance.Short term traders may look to retest the breakout zone $0.6487-$0.6504 for a fresh entry if supported by reversal patterns. A close below $0.6472 would kill the breakout and put $0.6447 back in play.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.