AUD/USD Price Struggles Below $0.6500 as Fed Uncertainty and China Woes Weigh

During the European session the AUD briefly touched an intraday high of $0.6514 as the USD was softer ahead of the Fed decision.

Written by: Arslan Butt • Wednesday, June 18, 2025 • 2 min read

• Last updated: Wednesday, June 18, 2025

Quick overview

The AUD briefly reached an intraday high of $0.6514 but faced resistance and macro concerns, limiting further gains.
Geopolitical tensions and weak housing data from China are capping the AUD's upside, despite a temporary boost from USD softness.
The AUD/USD remains under pressure, currently at $0.6492, with bearish technical indicators suggesting a potential decline.
Traders are advised to sell below $0.6484, targeting $0.6475 and $0.6466, while maintaining a stop loss at $0.6513.

During the European session the AUD briefly touched an intraday high of $0.6514 as the USD was softer ahead of the Fed decision. But the rally was short lived as technical resistance and macro concerns capped further upside. Traders are waiting for Powell’s comments with the market pricing in rate cuts as early as September. That’s dragged the USD lower and given high beta currencies like the AUD a temporary boost.

Still the AUD/USD remains under pressure and can’t sustain above $0.6500. Investor sentiment is sensitive to any changes in Fed’s monetary policy language which could be dovish or hawkish.

Geopolitics and China Data Capping AUD/USD Upside

Geopolitical tensions especially the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict is casting a shadow over global risk appetite. While this usually favors safe haven flows into the USD the AUD is resilient in the short term due to focus on interest rate dynamics. But caution prevails.

Also weak housing data from China is capping the AUD’s upside. In May new home prices in major Chinese cities fell 0.2% while second-hand property prices dropped 0.5%. Real estate investment plunged over 10% which is a bigger crack in China’s economic recovery – a concern for Australia due to its close trade ties.

AUD/USD Technical Outlook: Bearish Below $0.6500

The AUD/USD is currently at $0.6492 and is facing resistance at the 50 period EMA ($0.6502). Price has formed a short term descending trendline from the recent $0.6542 high. The 78.6% Fib level at $0.6526 acted as a ceiling and reinforced the lower high structure.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview — AUD/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Key takeaways:

Bearish engulfing candle at $0.6502
MACD histogram is softening with negative divergence
Price is wedged between 38.2% Fib support ($0.6495) and EMA resistance
Below $0.6484 opens up targets at $0.6475 and $0.6466

Trade Setup:

Sell: Below $0.6484
Target 1: $0.6475
Target 2: $0.6466
SL: $0.6513

Until bulls get back above $0.6513 the overall bias is bearish. Look for a close below $0.6484 to confirm further down.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.