Silver Price Holds $36.50 Trendline: Will Momentum Push to $35.80 Next?
Silver (XAG/USD) is holding its ground near $36.59 in Wednesday’s early session, bouncing slightly after testing an ascending trendline.
Quick overview
- Silver (XAG/USD) is currently trading around $36.59, showing signs of indecision as buyers lose conviction amidst a firm U.S. dollar.
- The price remains within a rising channel, but recent trends indicate weakening momentum, with the 14-period RSI at 46.
- A break below $36.47 could trigger a short trade setup, while a bullish scenario requires a strong move above $36.88.
- Traders should watch for confirmation through candle patterns, as macroeconomic factors and Fed sentiment could influence silver's direction.
Silver (XAG/USD) is holding its ground near $36.59 in Wednesday’s early session, bouncing slightly after testing an ascending trendline. While price remains within a broad rising channel, recent price action suggests buyers are losing conviction—especially with the U.S. dollar firming and gold under pressure.
As discussed in my gold analysis earlier today, rising Treasury yields and hawkish Fed sentiment are driving the dollar higher, which tends to weigh on both gold and silver. Trump’s escalating tariff rhetoric is also clouding the macro backdrop. Safe haven demand is holding up, just enough to keep silver afloat—but not enough to spark a breakout.
The real story, though, is on the chart.
Silver Chart Above Shows Momentum Fading Fast
Looking at the chart above, silver continues to respect its ascending channel, and the 50-period SMA (now around $36.71) remains a key pivot zone. But we’re not seeing the same aggressive follow-through on bounces that we did earlier in the trend. Price keeps testing the trendline and SMA without conviction.
In my experience, this kind of behavior, lower highs, tight candles, and sluggish RSI, often signals that buyers are running out of steam.
The 14-period RSI is sitting at 46, below the midpoint and slightly sloping down. That’s not a breakdown yet, but it’s a warning sign. We’ve also seen a string of spinning tops and small-bodied candles, especially near the $36.88 resistance level. This shows indecision—buyers are pushing, but not winning.
If we see a break below the $36.47 mark and get a bearish retest, the entire bullish structure could unwind back toward $36.17 or even $35.80.
Silver (XAG/USD) Trade Plan: Short Setup Below $36.47 if Retest Fails
Traders watching silver should focus on whether this trendline finally gives in. If the price breaks below $36.47 and then fails to reclaim that level on a retest—especially with a bearish engulfing or shooting star candle—there’s a strong case for a short trade.
Silver Trade Idea:
- Entry: Break and retest failure at $36.47
- Stop-loss: Above $36.88
- Target 1: $36.17
- Target 2: $35.80
- Bullish alternative: If price breaks above $36.88 with strong volume, upside could resume toward $37.24 or even $37.70
As someone who’s traded metals for over a decade, I’ve learned that silver loves to fake out before the real move begins. That’s why I’m waiting for confirmation—watch the candles, not just the levels.
With the Fed minutes on deck and macro tensions simmering, silver has a potential to break either way. But for now, the momentum suggests a test of support is more likely than a breakout.
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