Gold Price Forecast: Path to $4,000 Intact Despite Profit-Taking, Eyes on NFP Jobs
Gold remained volatile after the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut, yet strong safe-haven demand and central-bank support continue to keep..
Quick overview
- Gold prices remain volatile but are supported by strong safe-haven demand and central-bank buying, keeping the long-term outlook bullish toward $4,000.
- Following the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut, gold initially surged to a record high before profit-taking pulled prices back.
- Key upcoming U.S. labor-market data will be closely monitored for insights that could influence the Fed's policy and gold's trajectory.
- Despite short-term fluctuations, the underlying demand for gold remains strong due to geopolitical tensions and diverging monetary policies.
Live GOLD Chart
Gold remained volatile after the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut, yet strong safe-haven demand and central-bank support continue to keep the metal on a long-term upward trajectory toward the $4,000 mark.
Fed Cut Sparks Rally, Then Profit-Taking Pullback
Following the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut to 4.25% two weeks ago, gold prices initially surged above $3,700, briefly touching a record $3,707.42. This spike was quickly followed by profit-taking, pulling the price back to $3,627 as traders locked in short-term gains.
XAU Chart Daily – MAs Can’t Catch Up
Last week, buying momentum returned, pushing XAU to a fresh all-time high of $3,791. A notable catalyst was the surge in gold ETF inflows—the highest in three years—which reinforced investor confidence in bullion’s resilience.
PCE Data Revives Dovish Expectations
The August U.S. PCE price index, a key gauge of inflation, came in as expected and reassured investors that inflation pressures remain contained. This steadiness has rekindled dovish policy hopes, offering gold a renewed push higher by Friday as the dollar softened again.
However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s cautionary remarks on labor-market resilience and robust consumer demand initially dampened the rally. His comments hinted at a less-dovish stance, briefly boosting the dollar and trimming gold’s gains.
Looking Ahead: Key Data on Deck
JOLTS Job Openings (Tuesday)
- Markets will assess whether demand for labor remains robust. A softer reading could hint at cooling wage pressures, potentially easing concerns over inflation.
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Wednesday)
- Often viewed as a preview of the official NFP report, this private payrolls data will offer early insight into hiring trends in the private sector.
Weekly Unemployment Claims (Thursday)
- Claims have stayed near historically low levels, but any unexpected jump could signal emerging cracks in the labor market’s resilience.
Non-Farm Payrolls (Friday)
- The headline event of the week. Expectations are for a modest +51K jobs gain. A weaker-than-expected print may support equities by reinforcing bets on further Fed easing, while a stronger reading could spark optimism for growth but also reignite rate concerns.
U.S. Unemployment Rate (Friday)
- The broader health check on the labor market. Stability or a slight uptick could align with Fed goals for a gradual labor-market cooling, while a sharp increase would likely weigh on risk sentiment.
Safe-Haven Demand Anchors the Uptrend
Despite the short-term swings, underlying demand for safe-haven assets remains firm. Central-bank buying—led by China, which has lifted its gold reserves to 8.5% of total holdings—continues to support long-term price appreciation. This figure still sits well below the global average of about 20%, leaving room for further accumulation.
Persistent geopolitical tensions, concerns over global growth, and diverging monetary policies between the U.S. Fed’s easing cycle and the European Central Bank’s pause all point to ongoing structural demand for bullion. The weaker dollar environment anticipated by many analysts is another tailwind for gold.
Outlook: Bulls Keep Their Eyes on $4,000
The market’s current narrative suggests that, despite profit-taking and temporary pullbacks, the trajectory toward $4,000 remains intact. Traders are watching upcoming U.S. labor-market data for signals that could influence the Fed’s tone going into the final quarter of the year.
Gold’s resilience in the face of volatility underlines its enduring role as a hedge against both inflationary pressures and global uncertainty. As long as central banks continue to buy and safe-haven flows remain robust, the precious metal’s bullish case appears well-supported heading into Q4.
Gold Live Chart
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