The week after Draghi – where does the Euro stand?
Skerdian Meta • 1 min read
The Euro isn´t shining brightly at the moment
Last Thursday, the ECB president Mario Draghi delivered another dovish speech, which sent the Euro down more than 3 cents against most of the majors in the following 4-5 trading sessions. He announced a further rate cut and possibly a negative rate for the Euro deposits since inflation is still soft. The other dovish comment was in relation to the stimulus program that the ECB has applied from March. He said that the actual programme is not having the impact on the European economy that the ECB had expected when they began, so it is very likely that they will increase the size of the programme. Right now they are buying $50-$60 billion worth of assets a month, but come December that amount will go up to $80-$90 billion.
The Euro has started a steep downtrend and it hasn’t looked back since it initiated. It is now approx. 330 pips against the US Dollar and the other majors. The move down on EUR/USD was so ferocious that we only managed to get in once and open a sell forex signal on Friday, which resulted in profit. The pair stalled at 1.10 and slowly crawled back up to 1.55, where we had another pending sell forex signal. This signal was triggered during the night and hit the take profit target this morning. To me, that was more of a dead cat bounce as the retrace was very minimal compared to the size of the downward move. Wednesday's FED FOMC meeting might unnerve the EUR/USD bears and spur some profit-taking by sellers – but eventually the downtrend will resume again. So, our forex strategy is to sell this pair and maybe open sell forex signals on the 1.1050, 1.1070, and 1.11 levels.