The FED FOMC meeting is coming up
Skerdian Meta • 2 min read
Tomorrow is the last Wednesday of the month and the FED have their monthly meeting scheduled on this day. Same as me, almost the entire financial world is expecting the FED to stay put and not change anything regarding the monetary policy. That means that no one is expecting a rate hike this time. After they suddenly turned dovish in their March meeting, no one is expecting to hear hawkish comments on their statement either, but there`s where the catch is. You know, in this business the key to success is the power of anticipation, you should anticipate things in order to catch moves before they happen, otherwise it would be too late and the risk reward wouldn´t be worth it.
So, have we anticipated anything? If so, what is our plan and how will we manage our forex signals? Well, as we said most of the market participants are not expecting a change in the monetary policy and that´s almost 100% right in my opinion as well. But, they´re not expecting a hawkish statement either and that´s where we think they´re wrong. While we don´t expect a overly hawkish statement, we argue that the FED will remove some of the overly dovish comments from their March meeting. The outcome of the March meeting was unrealistic and the dovish comments were unjustified. But the global situation and possibly the G20 meeting pushed the FED toward that. So we think that this meeting at least will be more relaxed, therefore the market will be caught off guard. So, we are sticking to our USD/CAD buy forex signal and the AUD/USD sell forex signal. We might even hear some hawkish comments which will be a bonus for us, but we´ll see how it goes.