The employment numbers from North America are up soon
Skerdian Meta • 2 min read
The US and Canadian employment numbers be released in about two hours. This sort of economic data is released monthly and it paints a clear picture of the shape of the employment front. It shows the new job openings (non-farm employment change or NFP), the unemployment rate and the increase/decrease of the wages (average hourly earnings). This data is very accurate and trustworthy because it is calculated afterwards, unlike the 1st and 2nd prelim GDP estimations, so let´s have a look at both countries.
US employment – Two months ago the new job openings (employment change) posted 38k instead of around 160k expected. Although the number was just a one off in a long time and it was distorted by the Verizon strike, the forex market panicked and the USD suffered badly. The next month the numbers beat the expectations and we got back to normal, but the forex market reaction was numb.
This and the unemployment numbers haven´t had a big impact on the forex market. So honestly, we don´t expect any substantial market reaction from these two pieces of economic data, unless they come out extremely off the rails, particularly if they massively disappoint. Therefore, the attention will be on the wages data. The average hourly earnings show how much pressure the employers are feeling for labour, which translates into wages. The higher the wages, the more pressure on the employers for workers and therefore the better the shape of the economy.
From Canada, we will have the unemployment rate, the employment change and the trade balance. The employment change and the unemployment rate are not expecting to move the market much, unless they are extremely positive or extremely negative. So, the trade balance is the one to watch. The Canadian economy is relatively small compared to the US and it holds a lot of natural resources, so these two factors make the trade balance much more important.