US Q2 GDP numbers just before Yellen comes out of her hole
While many FED members (voting and non-voting) have been pretty vocal, Yellen has been hiding in her hole for about two months. Today she will be in another hole, the Jackson Hole summit, but at least she will finally be out of her hole. But just before that, the GDP numbers were published to give us an insight of which direction her comments might lean.
Taking a first glance at the second estimate numbers, the Q2 GDP doesn´t look very good. It came at 1.1% which is 0.1% lower than the first estimate. Together with Q1 GDP, the US growth for the first half stands at less than 1% annualized. So, we must be prepared to see 3% growth in Q2 and Q4 in order to reach the 2% goal.
That seems like a lot, but looking at the details of the Q2 GDP data the picture seems a lot brighter. Personal consumption grew, the core CPI (inflation) ticked up a point and spending for durable goods grow by 9.9% in Q2 against 8.4% in the first estimate.
Do you think that´s enough? No there´s more to come. The overall business investment in Q1 declined way less than in the first estimate, while the investment in IP/software grew by 8.6% against 3.5% in the first estimate. I know there are many factors which make up the GDP, but with all these higher revisions the second estimate GDP should have ticked up not down.
Still, all these higher revisions point to a much stronger GDP in the second half. Cross your fingers there won´t be another global meltdown to give the FED another reason to keep their heads in the sand. Talking of the FED, keep a close eye/ear on Yellen´s comments in a few minutes at the hole we mentioned in the beginning.
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