It’s that time of the month, get ready folks

Posted Friday, September 2, 2016 by
Skerdian Meta • 2 min read

Yep, it´s that time of the month again when we get to see how the US employment sector has performed in August. The unemployment rate and the non-farm employment change (NFP) used to take all attention up to a year ago. But, with the unemployment falling below the 5% natural level and the monthly job creation getting back to satisfactory levels after the little shakeup in May, the spotlight goes to the average hourly earnings (wages). 

So, we don´t expect the unemployment rate and the employment change to move the forex market today unless the deviation from what´s expected is substantial, probably 0.2% or more for the unemployment rate and more than 100k for the employment change. The increase/decrease in the wages on the other hand, shows how good the businesses in the US are doing. If there is a pickup in business activity, then that will put pressure on businesses to keep the working staff from leaving for better paid jobs, thus increasing the wages/salaries, that´s the reason the average hourly earnings have become increasingly important. 

Forex market, can we please get a move higher in GBP/USD so we can open a sell forex signal at better levels? 

Looking at the forex charts, we cab see that the forex traders are positioning themselves before the data release and that´s why EUR/USD is sliding down. We will keep an eye on this forex pair but my gut tells me that GBP/USD will offer a better opportunity for a long term sell forex signal. If the US employment data disapoints, then GBP/USD is likely to make a move higher, the magnitude of which will depend on how badly the employment data misses, probably up to 1.335-1.34. That will be the perfect spot to open a sell forex trade. 

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