The FED has tried to hike the interest rates since they started cutting them after the 2008 global financial crisis. There was a golden period for an interest rate hike in 2014 when the US economy was recovering pretty fast and the global economy was steady. The FED didn´t have the guts to hike the rates back then and they lost that chance.
They have tried to catch up with rate hikes but they only managed to hike the rates last December, which was far-fetched since the US economy was barely growing at that time. But they did that because it was overdue and they wanted to recuperate some time and get some breathing space if there was a need for a rate cut in the future.
The poor people at the FED have tried to convince the forex market and themselves that the economy is improving and a rate hike is coming, but it all sounded very sad. I have been trying to convince myself as well that the US, the UK and the world economy is improving and higher rates are coming, but the economic data keep battering any hopes time after time.
Even dovish Yellen tried to be optimistic for once, but just when she tried to look at the bright side of things the US economic data goes and turns all crappy. The last round of the US data painted my screen red, since it missed the expectations. There is just one more piece left tomorrow, but after Brainard´s extremely dovish comments on Monday and the disappointing numbers we have seen in the US recently, I can say for the first time that right now it´s just not the right time to go on another adventure and hike the interest rates.
You have to feel sorry for Yellen. By the way, they might as well hike the rates next week, but it will be another desperate hike. We will shortly post another update where we will break down the numbers that were released a while ago.