Yesterday we opened a sell forex signal in NZD/USD at 0.72802. The dairy prices for September were scheduled for release today and we knew that, but somehow I had the feeling that the numbers would be disappointing after last month's miss. At least, there wouldn't be fireworks, that was our hope.
The dairy prices were released today (it's an auction actually) and they declined by 3%. The trend has been down in the last several releases, so this was not a big surprise. But, it was enough to push this forex pair down thus triggering our take profit.
NZD/USD has been in an uptrend this year and it reached the 200 moving average in the daily chart. But if the dairy prices post another negative number next time, I'm affraid this uptrend might come to an end. In the biger picture (1-2 years) the trend is down, which makes this year's move just a retrace of the larger downtrend. With the December rate hike coming up, the near term FED policy is hawkish. This is another reason to think that this might be the top of the trend in the larger timeframe. So, get ready for a long term sell forex signal in the coming days, the reward potential is great.