As if FED´s Rorengren and later today Yellen aren´t enough to keep the hawks satisfied, the US retail sales and producer inflation (PPI) gave them another reason to hold on to their positions. The data wasn´t particularly great, but it points in the right direction and that´s more than enough for the FED to keep their hawkish bias towards the December rate hike.
What exactly are the numbers?
Actual Forecast Previous
Core retail sales 0.5% 0.4% -0.2%
Retail sales 0.6% 0.6% -0.2%
Core PPI 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
PPI 0.3% 0.2% 0%
As you can see from the PPI and sales number above, the improvement is not huge but with all four data pieces moving substantially higher this month and three out of four beating the expectation, this report is at least slightly hawkish. So, Yellen is due to speak at the Boston FED and these figures will cover her back if she decides to repeat the rate hike scenario.
Don´t forget that the US consumer sentiment numbers will be published soon which might cast a shadow over the hawkish outlook, if they are surprisingly bad. I don´t think that´s likely but just keep an eye on it because that´s the last piece of data before Yellen takes over. I´m off writing the weekly review now, but we´ll write another post today to keep you guys updated.
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