We Missed the FOMC Minutes Last Evening – What Do They Mean for the Buck?
The FED minutes from their early November meeting were released yesterday at 7 pm GMT and we totally missed them. Those minutes are a bit outdated because the meeting was held before the US elections which changed an era, or at least these are the expectations.
Since then the market sentiment has improved immensely and the Buck has gained more than five cents. Still, it's interesting to see where the FED stands on the US economy and on the interest rate path based purely on the economic shape and outlook, without the influence of Trump's win.
The first thing that immediately gets your attention in the minutes is the consensus of all FED members to hike the rates as soon as possible. Of course they were going to stay on hold this time to prevent any electoral shock. We now know that there was a shock indeed, only that this turned to work out fine for the FED and the entire global sentiment.
The other thing which stands out on the minutes is the fact that the FED is worried that if they leave the interest rates too low for too long while the unemployment rate falls further, then they might be forced to hike them quite rapidly, which would hurt the economic recovery. This is a signal that the rate hike path for 2017 might be steeper than the forex market has already priced in. In that case, this would be a massive plus for the USD.
Remember that this is before the elections. With market sentiment totally shifted to the upside and a generous fiscal stimulus behind the door according to the financial markets, the projections for next year seem to lean on the Dollar side. Still, I have this gut feeling that nothing is going to be that straight forward.
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