Wednesday Morning Levels – EUR/USD

Posted Wednesday, November 30, 2016 by
Skerdian Meta • 2 min read

We took a look at the EUR/USD support/resistance levels at the beginning of last week, but a lot has happened since then. The great US durable goods orders sent the USD pairs 100 pips higher/lower last Wednesday depending on the USD side in respective pairs, then on Monday morning we witnessed a USD squeeze which came ou of nowhere.

Well, perhaps Fillon taking the French Conservative Party was an additional reason, but to me, it looked like pure profit taking. By the way, we warned you that the 1.0520 support level in EUR/USD was going to be a big level, so there you go. Anyway, let´s get on with the levels in EUR/USD.

The technical levels are clearer on the H4 chart

As you can see from the EUR/USD H4 chart, the 1.0650-60 level, which has been a support level before, has now turned into a solid resistance level. So that´s the first decent level to overcome on the top side. If the EUR/USD buyers can push above it, then we´ll be looking at 1.0700-10 level. That was mild support on the way down, but the 100 simple moving average (100 SMA) in green in the same forex chart makes that level quite important now.

If you change to the daily forex chart, the closest technical indicator you can find is the 20 SMA in grey, which comes at around 1.0750-60. The moving averages in higher timeframe charts are quite slow to react, so I think the 20 SMA will be up there for a few days at least, which makes the 1.0750-60 the third decent resistance level.

However, there´s no doubt that the ultimate resistance level remains in the 1.08 area. It kept the price above it for most of this year and now it will try and do the opposite, which makes it the line in the sand. Stay below 1.08 and the EUR/USD sellers are safe and aiming at 1.0520 soon. Move below and all hell will break loose as sellers close their EUR/USD trades in panic.

The closest mild support levels come at 1.0620-30 followed by 1.06, and 1.0580. The first semi-decent support level is 1.0550-60, which is this week´s low and, of course, the elephant in the room, 1.0520.

There are a couple of important US economic data release this afternoon, but the only thing which might take the price beyond that level is Draghi´s speech at a business school in Madrid. I don´t think he´ll be willing to talk about anything important, but I´m sure he´ll be asked about the ECB monetary policy. If the 1.0520 level goes, then hell will break loose on the down side and I can´t stick my foot on the ground for any support levels if that happens. 

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About the author

Skerdian Meta is our Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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