EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Posted Thursday, December 8, 2016 by
Skerdian Meta • 3 min read

Ok, we just missed a great opportunity to sell EUR/USD, damn it. The price in this forex pair has been sliding down for weeks so I have been waiting for a pullback since mid-November. The surge of the last few days had me on my toes and today´s spike was the perfect opportunity to open that long term forex signal. 

But, the spike happened so quickly; EUR/USD shot about 100 pips higher in a few minutes and before forex traders even figured out what was going on the price was back down, twice as much. I tried to open a sell EUR/USD signal by the time the price got back to 1.08, but my fx broker kept requoting my trades and I didn´t like the huge slippage. 

So, we have been left out of this trade and might not even get another chance to get in, unless you want to risk 250-300 pips and get a crappy risk/reward ratio, which doesn´t meet my trading criteria since it falls out of my trading strategy. Still, nothing is written in the stone in forex, so let´s just have a quick look at the levels where we might be persuaded to get in if the price reaches those levels. 

First of all, as we mentioned in our previous update, this is a bearish statement from Draghi and the ECB. They will probably be active for a long time, unlike the market had previously assumed. That´s bearish for the Euro, while we know the situation in the USD is hawkish; the FED will hike the interest rates this month and Trump will soon be president which comes with a fiscal stimulus plan attached to him. 

So, where do we sell the Euro? 

This is the third reversal in a month, which will last a lot longer IMO

The ECB was the risk event for EUR/USD sellers, but now that this event is over and it went in favour of the sellers, the only problem for forex traders would be the entry point. 

We´re just hanging around the low 1.06, so the first decent resistance doesn´t come until 1.08, where the price was before the ECB. That would be a great place to sell now that we know what the ECB plan is. The question is, will the price reach that far anytime soon? 

That´s not far at all and with today´s price action we can see that level, but 1.0700-50 would be a more reasonable level. If EUR/USD pulls a decent retrace from this 250 pip decline in the last, then 1.08 is well within a reach in the last few trading sessions and we´ll load up.

If the pullback takes time, then we must look at the lower 1.0700-50 levels for an entry point. If the price hangs around here or moves further below, the technical indicators will reach overbought levels well before we reach 1.08, so that´s the reason to look at the lower levels.

So, the entry time and level will depend on the price action in the next couple of sessions, but I´m looking to sell at lower levels now, where before the ECB I was looking at 1.09 or 1.10. Anyway, will keep you guys updated.  

P.S. We made a nice profit from our long term EUR/CHF signal and the price is sliding down in this pair. If this continues, we will look to open another by signal around the 1.0720-40 level. 

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About the author

Skerdian Meta is our Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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