Politics Are Beating Economics, Believe It

Posted Friday, March 3, 2017 by
Skerdian Meta • 1 min read

Not long ago we opened a forex signal in EUR/USD. We sold this forex pair when the price was about 20 pips lower. It was having trouble breaking above the 100 SMA on the 30 minute chart and the technical indicators at the bottom of the trading platform were both oversold, which means that the retrace up was over.

Besides that, the Eurozone retail sales missed the expectations. They declined by 0.1% in February and last month´s number were revised lower to -0.5%. That´s a terrible retail sales report coming from the EU, but guess what? Euro pairs are more than 20 pips higher now.

The technical analysis is screaming sell

This is not a Dollar move, because the Buck is up against most forex majors, so it´s all coming from the Euro. There´s only one reason for this, politics.

French presidential candidate Macron beat Le Penn in polls for the first time in a long time. For those who don´t know, Macron and Fillon are the two pro EU candidates who have been trailing Le Penn for the first round.

In the second round, the polls show that any of the pro EU candidates (whoever will survive the first round) will beat Le Penn, but the worries remain. Now, the Odoxa poll shows Macron beating both candidates in the first round.   

That´s all that forex traders were waiting for and pop goes EUR/USD. The 1.0540-50 level is providing resistance and the 100 SMA (red) on the hourly chart is sticking its foot in the ground, so we´re ok for now. Let´s hope that this small jump was all the arsenal EUR/USD buyers have.   

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