In our first update today, we talked about how Scotland is trying to fight off Brexit and possibly take a road entirely on its own. The Scots are pushing for another independence referendum and considering how pro EU these guys are, I have the gut feeling that this time it will be the end of this love-hate relationship (England-Scotland).
The UK government is speeding up the heartbreak as well by pushing harder to trigger Article 50, not that they have any other choice at this moment.
Last evening, the Upper House of the UK Parliament backed down on the Brexit amendments, which means there's a green light for the government.
Not long after, the Brexit minister, Davis, popped in all happy while yelling Brexit. Besides that, he mentioned that Article 50 will definitely be triggered this month. That´s why we´re keeping an eye on the UK right now.
UK PM Theresa May is doing her part too; Reuters reported last night that she is preparing to reject the Scottish referendum.
The reasoning she gave was that they can´t have an independence referendum while the UK is negotiating with the EU. It would make the UK look vulnerable. It makes sense but if Scotland is to make a move on its own, it´d be best to do that as soon as possible. Therefore, both sides are right at this point.
Sell the GBP?
I know; it´s getting messy and will get even messier. This is not good news for the Pound, hence the 150 pip decline since last evening.
I´m looking to sell this poor currency for the long term, but the problem is against which other currency? We might sell GBP/USD and target 1.15, but if Trump decides to open a currency war, then that´s it for the Buck.
Going long on EUR/USD would be another option, but what if Le Penn wins the French elections? What if Merkel loses later this year? Well, let´s take some time to decide and evaluate our options.